Skip to main content

The context you need, when you need it

When news breaks, you need to understand what actually matters — and what to do about it. At Vox, our mission to help you make sense of the world has never been more vital. But we can’t do it on our own.

We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism. Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today?

Join now

These are the moments Clinton won over voters inclined to vote for Trump

Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump Face Off In First Presidential Debate At Hofstra University
Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump Face Off In First Presidential Debate At Hofstra University
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Libby Nelson
Libby Nelson was Vox’s editorial director, politics and policy, leading coverage of how government action and inaction shape American life. Libby has more than a decade of policy journalism experience, including at Inside Higher Ed and Politico. She joined Vox in 2014.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz started the night of the first presidential debate with a group of undecided Pennsylvania voters who were favorably inclined toward Donald Trump. He finished it with a group that thought Hillary Clinton had overwhelmingly won.

It’s important not to draw broad conclusions from such a small group. (A CNN focus group of Florida voters came to a similar conclusion.) But Luntz’s Twitter timeline is still an interesting illustration of where Clinton broke through and how Trump didn’t.

During the first half-hour of the debate, Luntz’s focus group broke strongly for Trump. But as the night continued, his support fell apart, particularly at a few key moments — when Clinton criticized Trump for not releasing his tax returns and when he struggled to explain being a birther.

When Clinton called out Trump for not releasing his tax returns, and speculated about several reasons he might be avoiding it, including that he’s not as rich as he claims to be, even Trump voters liked it:

When Clinton accused Trump of stiffing contractors who worked for him, because Trump claimed they didn’t do the work up to his standards, her criticisms were more effective than his rebuttals.

Clinton’s reflections on race, and particularly her promise to enforce the law the right way, got rave reviews from Luntz’s focus group:

But Trump’s response on his birtherism appears to be what really destroyed him with Luntz’s focus group.

One interesting thing about these focus groups is that in some cases, voters leaning toward Trump had a better opinion of Clinton than the “undecided” voters did. Luntz’s tweets before the debate suggested that some of his “undecided” voters weren’t necessarily hovering between the two candidates with no opinion — they just didn’t like either of them. But it appears they disliked Clinton ever so slightly less.

More in Politics

Podcasts
The Supreme Court abortion pills case, explainedThe Supreme Court abortion pills case, explained
Podcast
Podcasts

How Louisiana brought mifepristone back to SCOTUS.

By Peter Balonon-Rosen and Sean Rameswaram
Politics
Trump’s China policy is nearly the exact opposite of what everyone expectedTrump’s China policy is nearly the exact opposite of what everyone expected
Politics

As Trump heads to China, attention and resources are being shifted from Asia to yet another war in the Middle East.

By Joshua Keating
Politics
Are far-right politics just the new normal?Are far-right politics just the new normal?
Politics

Liberals are preparing for a longer war with right-wing populists than they once expected.

By Zack Beauchamp
The Logoff
Flavored vapes doomed Trump’s FDA headFlavored vapes doomed Trump’s FDA head
The Logoff

Why Marty Makary is out at the FDA, briefly explained.

By Cameron Peters
Politics
Virginia Democrats’ irresponsible new plan to save their gerrymanderVirginia Democrats’ irresponsible new plan to save their gerrymander
Politics

Democrats just handed the Supreme Court’s Republicans a loaded weapon.

By Ian Millhiser
The Logoff
Can Trump lower gas prices?Can Trump lower gas prices?
The Logoff

What suspending the gas tax would mean for you, briefly explained.

By Cameron Peters