Sen. Joe Manchin announces he’ll vote for Brett Kavanaugh

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) — a red-state Democrat who crossed party lines to vote for President Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch — announced on Friday that he would vote for Brett Kavanaugh, a statement that all but cleared Kavanaugh’s path to the Court.

Manchin’s statement was released shortly after Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — another closely watched swing senator — announced her support for the nominee.

All of the lawmakers viewed as pivotal swing votes have now announced how they plan to vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination. And unless there’s a surprise defection in the rest of the Republican caucus, it appears he will be confirmed.

“I have reservations about this vote given the serious accusations against Judge Kavanaugh and the temperament he displayed in the hearing,” Manchin said in a statement explaining his decision. “I believe he will rule in a manner consistent with our Constitution.”

Manchin was the last Democratic holdout to announce his position. As recently as Thursday afternoon, he remained undecided on the nomination after reviewing an FBI report scrutinizing sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh.

He indicated on Friday, however, that his meeting with Kavanaugh as well as the FBI report helped to assuage concerns he had about the allegations against Kavanaugh and the potential role he could play in undoing health care protections for those with preexisting conditions.

Much like Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND), another red-state Democrat who was on the fence until this week, Manchin is up for reelection in November and his stance on Kavanaugh could become an issue in the race.

Manchin’s announcement also means that Republicans can count on him to back Kavanaugh’s confirmation in a vote expected to happen as early as this weekend. Because of Republicans’ razor-thin 51-49 majority in the Senate, they need at least 50 votes in order to advance Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the next step. With Manchin, Collins, and Jeff Flake all indicating their support of Kavanaugh, while Lisa Murkowski has expressed her opposition, they’ve firmly hit that threshold.

A RealClearPolitics polling average has Manchin leading his midterm opponent Patrick Morrisey by 9 percentage points. While that’s a sizable lead, it’s possible that this decision could widen it even further given how the Kavanaugh nomination has fired up portions of the GOP base.

Morrisey has repeatedly gone after Manchin for his silence on the nomination and argued that he didn’t want to be the 50th vote in favor of Kavanaugh. Earlier this week, Morrisey dubbed Manchin “Sideline Joe,” and he’s previously echoed Republican arguments about Democrats’ mishandling of sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh.

Manchin’s decision was somewhat expected given statements that he’s made about Kavanaugh in the past. As Politico reported on Thursday, Manchin had indicated that he saw some of the allegations Kavanaugh faces as stemming from youth and not his time as an adult.

“I can understand also a person [Kavanaugh] who from 22 to 53, how he’s conducted his life, how he took care of his family, how he basically approached his job in a responsible manner,” Manchin told Politico. “I’m not hearing anything from the 30 years as an adult, in his professional life.”

“Based on all the information I have available to me, I’ve found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist,” Manchin said in his Friday statement.