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	<title type="text">Bryan Walsh | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2026-05-13T18:08:27+00:00</updated>

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		<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[We&#8217;re asking the wrong question about the hantavirus outbreak]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/488471/hantavirus-pandemic-covid-cruise-ship-cdc-trump" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=488471</id>
			<updated>2026-05-13T14:08:27-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-05-13T07:15:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Covid-19" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Should you be worried about the hantavirus outbreak? Should you be afraid? Should you be panicking? Should you start freaking out? If you’ve been following the coverage of the hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius, these are the questions you’ve seen posed in headlines. And a small tip from inside&#160; the media: If [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Passengers getting off hantavirus cruise ship" data-caption="Medical staff direct some of the last passengers to be evacuated from the MV Hondius on May 11, 2026 in Tenerife, part of the Canary Islands, Spain. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Chris McGrath/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/05/GettyImages-2275664276.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	Medical staff direct some of the last passengers to be evacuated from the MV Hondius on May 11, 2026 in Tenerife, part of the Canary Islands, Spain. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Should you be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/05/11/make-it-make-sense-should-you-be-worried-about-hantavirus/">worried about the hantavirus outbreak</a>? Should you be <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/dr-marc-siegel-hantavirus-cruise-outbreak-alarming-fear-spreading-faster-facts">afraid</a>? Should you <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/10/politics/video/hantavirus-cdc-covid-fda-trump">be panicking</a>? Should you start <a href="https://www.rd.com/article/hantavirus-outbreak/"><em>freaking out</em></a>?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you’ve been following the coverage of the hantavirus outbreak aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius, these are the questions you’ve seen posed in headlines. And a small tip from inside&nbsp; the media: If a question is posed in a headline, the answer is almost always “no.” (It’s such a common trope that there’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines">even an informal law about it</a>.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So, unless you’re a passenger or close contact of someone on the Hondius, you shouldn’t really worry about the hantavirus outbreak. You shouldn’t really fear it. You definitely shouldn’t panic. And do I really need to tell you that freaking out generally stops being acceptable behavior after the age of 15?</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Hantavirus and misinformation" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Eqe7f9tPtas?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p class="has-text-align-none">As my colleague Dylan Scott <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/488101/what-is-hantavirus-cruise-ship-outbreak">has reported</a>, by far the most likely outcome is that the hantavirus outbreak will ultimately be controlled and won’t become something that will disturb the general public. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167477">As of May 12</a>, there were 11 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths. While a hantavirus outbreak in a tightly packed cruise ship is new and certainly suboptimal — not to mention <a href="https://www.bu.edu/bhr/2020/07/08/the-case-of-the-diamond-princess-stranded-at-sea-in-a-pandemic/">bringing back unsettling memories of early Covid</a> — experience with the deadly virus strongly suggests it probably <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hantavirus-covid-infectious-disease-experts/">doesn&#8217;t have the transmissibility</a> required to become a larger pandemic threat.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After some initial dysfunction that was itself partially explainable by just how unusual a seaborne hantavirus outbreak was, the response system appears to be working relatively well. Citing moral and legal obligations, Spain <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/10/health/live-news/hantavirus-cruise-outbreak">accepted</a> the passengers at Tenerife in the Canary Islands over the objections of some officials there; they were met on the dock by hazmat suited workers. Eighteen US-bound passengers from the cruise <a href="https://time.com/article/2026/05/11/hantavirus-andes-cruise-ship-passengers-quarantine-nebraska/">are being kept in quarantine units</a> where they can be safely monitored for symptoms; even the planes they flew out on had special biocontainment equipment. Other passengers and contacts around the world are being isolated and watched.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So, yes, without outright telling you what you should feel, you have reason to feel reassured.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But framing emerging disease coverage around how the audience feels — should you worry, should you panic — is exactly the problem.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Panic-demic</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one thing, the personal fear framing has a single, predictable response. The only answer a responsible public health official can give to “should the public panic?” is “no,” which is precisely why every senior figure taking part in hantavirus response has been singing in this key for two weeks. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/09-05-2026-message-by-the-who-director-general-to-the-people-of-tenerife-regarding-the-hantavirus-response">specifically told</a> Tenerife residents that “this is not another Covid.” WHO epidemic and pandemic chief Maria Van Kerkhove <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hantavirus-covid-infectious-disease-experts/">told the media</a>: “This is not SARS-CoV-2. This is not the start of a Covid pandemic.” Acting Centers for Disease Control Director Jay Bhattacharya <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/10/politics/video/hantavirus-cdc-covid-fda-trump">said on CNN</a> that “we don’t want to cause a public panic over this.”&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

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<p class="has-text-align-none">The reassurance is technically accurate, but because of the way the media asks the question, it’s the only thing anyone can say. That framing flattens out the actual, complicated response to an actual, complicated emerging disease outbreak. The implicit tone of the coverage is that the only reason that you, the audience, should care about a disease outbreak is whether it is coming for you personally.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s a problem, because it can cede the ground to precisely the kind of hysteria these statements are meant to counteract. Just because the audience doesn’t have anything to directly worry about now does not mean this situation is normal or okay. An outbreak with some person-to-person transmission of a respiratory disease with no vaccine or cure that has a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00528.html">fatality rate of around 40 percent</a> is not normal. And in the current media <s>hellscape</s> environment, the gap between what reporters are pressing public health officials to say and what people can see on their TVs is filled by TikTok influencers <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hantavirus-pandemic-fears-9.7195958">predicting</a> the virus could wipe out the whole human race.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What you don’t know can hurt you</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I can say with the highest confidence that hantavirus will not, in fact, wipe out the human race. (Hope that makes you feel better.) But there is a more reasonable argument that the current messaging may be overconfident on the underlying science.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We know hantavirus, but we don’t know it that well. The total scientific record on person-to-person transmission of this strain of the hantavirus is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/08/health/hantavirus-by-the-numbers">maybe 300 cases in all</a>, while <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2009040">one outbreak in 2018</a> featured three super-spreader events before it was suppressed. While the WHO says that person-to-person hantavirus transmissions generally only occur with “close prolonged contact,” that’s the median case, not the potential outliers. And, as we learned with Covid, assurances about how a virus behaves early in a new outbreak can sometimes turn out to be wrong in a big way.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The fundamental fact that Covid taught us is that a pandemic can be so catastrophic that it can be worth doing almost anything to prevent one. That’s why some experts, like <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/health/hantavirus-public-health-officials-calm-mongering">Harvard’s Joseph Allen</a> and <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-to-know-about-the-cruise-ship-hantavirus-outbreak-and-the-americans-facing-quarantine">former White House Covid coordinator Ashish Jha</a>, have argued for a much fuller quarantine of Hondius passengers, rather than the <a href="https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/two-texans-self-monitoring-after-disembarking-from-hantavirus-ship">self-monitoring approach</a> that has been allowed for some returnees viewed as lower risk. Even the 2003 SARS outbreak, which <a href="https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html">ultimately killed</a> fewer than 800 people, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92486/">cost the global economy</a> at least $40 billion and led to worldwide disruptions. The cost of caution is small; the price of being wrong the other way could be immeasurable. And the calculation of how we should respond should not be driven by feeling.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you need something to be worried about, worry about this: The global public health system that is meant to be driving this response is being dismantled. The CDC has lost about a <a href="https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/06/cdc-has-shed-one-quarter-staff-even-it-recalls-some-laid-workers/406147/">quarter of its staff</a> since January 2025, leaving the remainder stretched thin. That includes the acting director, who was already <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/public-health/nih-director-bhattacharya-will-temporarily-oversee-cdc">running the National Institutes of Health</a>. Georgetown’s Lawrence Gostin <a href="https://www.ksbw.com/article/experts-wonder-cdc-response-hantavirus-outbreak-cruise/71259035">told</a> the Associated Press that “the CDC is not even a player” in the global response, which has been further hampered by the fact that Argentina — likely where the outbreak began — followed in America’s footsteps by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/5/following-trump-argentina-withdraws-from-world-health-organization">withdrawing</a> from the WHO just two weeks before the Hondius left the country.     </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A pandemic is the <a href="https://humanrisks.com/blog/managing-low-probability-high-impact-risks/">ultimate low-probability, high-consequence event</a>. I can easily count off the outbreaks that appeared scary at the moment but ultimately fell well short of a pandemic — Nipah virus, MERS, SARS — both because of the characteristics of the pathogens and because of the response. That’s almost always the way it goes, and most signs indicate that the same will be true for hantavirus. But we also have very fresh memories of just how horrible a true pandemic can be.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s a hard ask to keep both possibilities in mind, but the way the media covers these events doesn’t help. “Should we panic about hantavirus?” asks the wrong question. The right one is whether an increasingly fractured global health system still has the capacity — and the political and public support — to go beyond reassurance. The best way to keep people from panicking about hantavirus is to do everything possible to ensure there is nothing to panic about.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect"><em><strong>Future Perfect</strong></em></a><em>&nbsp;newsletter.&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup"><em><strong>Sign up here!</strong></em></a></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The surprisingly strong case for feeling great about your coffee habit]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/488262/coffee-health-heart-disease-cancer-nutrition" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=488262</id>
			<updated>2026-05-08T18:01:00-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-05-09T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Food" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[There are few news subjects more reliably depressing than nutritional science.&#160; A glance at the headlines will tell you that sugar is bad for you, red meat is bad for you, and alcohol is really, really bad for you. The message seems to be that if a food or drink gives you even an iota [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Coffee in a cup" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Jacques Julien/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/05/GettyImages-1967688070.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p class="has-text-align-none">There are few news subjects more reliably depressing than nutritional science.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A glance at the headlines will tell you that sugar is <a href="https://www.vox.com/explain-it-to-me/482621/sugar-addiction-health-effects-eat-less">bad for you</a>, red meat is <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/406933/maha-meat-dairy-rfk-dietary-guidelines">bad for you</a>, and alcohol is <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/458272/alcohol-drinking-decline-health-teen-drinking-alcoholism">really, really bad for you</a>. The message seems to be that if a food or drink gives you even an iota of pleasure, it’s almost certain that your body will pay for it, sooner or later.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But there is one exception, a glorious concoction that was first consumed in ninth-century Ethiopia, that fueled the Age of Enlightenment, that has kept our troops going from the Revolutionary War to today. It is one of the first globally traded commodities, connecting producers in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia to consumers around the world in a <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/coffee-market">$245 billion market</a>. It can be had flat or steamed, long or short, hot or iced, black or with milk, and in any number of combinations that end in the letters “-cino.”&nbsp;</p>
<div class="vox-embed"><a href="https://www.vox.com/videos/2020/8/10/21361950/coffee-crisis-climate-colombia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">View Link</a></div>
<p class="has-text-align-none">However you take it, the equivalent of more than <a href="https://www.verenastreet.com/blogs/all-about-coffee/coffee-statistics?srsltid=AfmBOopeqRAAWAqeFersRXqXU0bAkk9IyZDskojyRUKXTd-a1UxPvPls">2 <em>billion </em>cups</a> of it are consumed every day. Unlike so <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/23529587/consumer-goods-quality-fast-fashion-technology">many other products</a> we experience in our daily lives, it’s actually been getting better and better. And medical science is increasingly finding that all those cups are actually <em>good </em>for us.<br><br>I’m referring, of course, to the daily miracle that is coffee. Our grandparents were told to cut back on this dirty-tasting beverage but today, it has become one of the most studied and virtuous and quietly luxurious parts of the human diet. All in all, coffee —&nbsp;yes, <em>coffee</em> —&nbsp;is one of the best reasons to be alive in the year 2026.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Coffee and cigarettes</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A generation ago, coffee was supposed to be something you quit, like cigarettes or that second martini. Doctors would <a href="https://healthcare.utah.edu/the-scope/health-library/all/2023/11/drinking-coffee-during-pregnancy-bad-my-baby">warn pregnant women against drinking it</a>; cardiologists would tell their middle-aged patients to <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/heart-health/does-coffee-help-or-harm-your-heart">give it up</a>. The World Health Organization’s International Research Agency for Cancer kept it on its “possibly carcinogenic” list for 25 years, only <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/coffee-removed-from-list-of-carcinogens-very-hot-beverages-are-threat/">downgrading</a> it in 2016 after a review of the evidence found no clear link.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Why exactly was something as seemingly innocuous as coffee considered a real health threat for so long? Coffee contains caffeine (yes, even decaf in <a href="https://www.swisswater.com/blogs/sw/how-much-caffeine-is-in-decaf" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.swisswater.com/blogs/sw/how-much-caffeine-is-in-decaf">small amounts</a>), caffeine is a stimulant, and stimulants can have an impact on heart health. There were 20th-century studies that linked coffee consumption to <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM198103123041102">pancreatic cancer</a>, <a href="https://www.inchem.org/documents/iarc/vol51/01-coffee.html">bladder cancer</a>, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1980/09/04/fda-to-warn-on-caffeine-in-pregnancy/6d23546d-1fcc-46a6-83ab-bfc7f763a0ee/">even birth defects</a>. None of those studies have held up to scrutiny, however, and the reason why is a classic bugaboo of medical research: confounding factors.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For much of the 20th century, coffee went with cigarettes like peanut butter goes with jelly — except, in this case, peanut butter is largely innocuous, while jelly is actively trying to murder you. Based on data collected <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4879503/#add13298-bib-0002">between 1976 and 1980</a>, heavy coffee drinkers in the US were six to seven times more likely to be smokers than non-coffee drinkers. All that smoking among coffee drinkers in the past meant they were more likely to suffer heart disease or cancer or any other health threat that cigarettes are connected to, and that showed up in the studies. But it wasn’t the cup of coffee that was doing the damage. It was the cigarette they were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2475299122119645">smoking alongside it</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As smoking collapsed, a new generation of better-designed studies took a clearer view of coffee’s health effects. <a href="https://nurseshealthstudy.org/">Major</a> <a href="https://hsph.harvard.edu/research/health-professionals/">prospective</a> <a href="https://epic.iarc.who.int/">cohort</a> <a href="https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/">studies</a> followed enormous populations for decades, with smoking properly accounted for, and looked at coffee consumption against outcomes ranging from dementia to liver cancer to all-cause mortality. The results were almost embarrassingly consistent in coffee&#8217;s favor. The recently released USDA <a href="https://utswmed.org/medblog/dietary-guidelines-update/">Dietary Guidelines officially classify</a> unsweetened coffee as “healthy,” and consumption of up to roughly four cups a day is considered safe for most adults. Even <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3625078/">pregnant women can</a> enjoy a cup or two a day.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So that’s the baseline: Coffee will not kill you. But more recent research suggests coffee is more than simply benign. It’s something that can actively benefit your health in numerous ways.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">It’s good for you. Really.</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The study arrived in <em>JAMA</em> in March, and I read it with a cup of joe close by. Researchers at Mass General Brigham, Harvard, and the Broad Institute had been following 131,821 American doctors and nurses for 43 years (possibly the longest single piece of evidence we will ever get on a daily dietary habit and a chronic disease), and by the end of the study, 11,033 had developed dementia. But the participants who drank two to three cups of caffeinated coffee a day were <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2026/02/drinking-2-3-cups-of-coffee-a-day-tied-to-lower-dementia-risk/">18 percent less likely</a> to be among them. A separate <a href="https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2026/04/03/study-shows-how-coffee-could-benefit-brain-health">Cleveland Clinic analysis</a> tied the effect specifically to caffeinated coffee. <em>Nature</em> described the relationship in coffee drinkers as &#8220;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00409-y">slower brain aging</a>.&#8221;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That study didn&#8217;t appear out of nowhere. It joins a five-year run in which essentially every major endpoint in coffee research has come back in favor of the bean.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A 2019 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-019-00524-3">meta-analysis in the </a><em><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-019-00524-3">European Journal of Epidemiology</a> </em>covering 40 cohort studies and millions of participants found the lowest all-cause mortality risk at intakes of about 3.5 cups a day, and a <a href="https://jn.nutrition.org/article/S0022-3166(25)00286-X/abstract">2025 analysis</a> confirmed it in US adults. A meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies covering <a href="https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article/76/6/395/4954186">1.18 million participants</a> found a 29 percent reduction in diabetes risk at the highest intake category, with risk dropping by 6 percent with each additional daily cup. Both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee delivered protection, which points to chlorogenic acid and other polyphenols, rather than caffeine, as the active mechanism. Just keep it black — add sugar or artificial sweeteners and the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0002916525000176">benefit largely disappears</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The liver may be the single organ that benefits most. A <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0142457"><em>PLOS One</em> meta-analysis</a> found 39 percent lower odds of cirrhosis among coffee drinkers; a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/apt.13523">Wiley analysis</a> found a 44 percent reduction in liver-cancer risk for those drinking two or more cups daily. The protective effect <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4862107/">extends</a> to fatty liver disease and viral hepatitis. Coffee is, plausibly, doing something for liver health that no medication does at population scale.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So what’s actually happening at the biological level? Coffee is the largest single source of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fsn3.3848">polyphenols and antioxidants</a> in the average Western diet, and its main bioactive compound, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28391515/">chlorogenic acid</a>, suppresses several pro-inflammatory pathways while raising the body&#8217;s antioxidant defenses. While caffeine may be the reason most of us turn to coffee in the bleary morning hours, it’s the biochemistry running alongside it that is doing most of the medical work. The coffee mug is, in plain pharmacological terms, a delivery system for some of the most well-studied anti-inflammatory compounds humans have ever measured.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Plus, it’s really good.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How coffee got better</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It wasn’t always, though. For most of the 20th century, Americans subsisted on canned, pre-ground, vacuum-packed grocery-store coffee like Folgers or Maxwell House. Worse, by the 1970s, almost a third of all coffee imported into the US was <a href="https://vinepair.com/articles/best-specialty-instant-coffee/">being turned</a> — nay, perverted — into instant, like Sanka or Folgers Crystals. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2007/june/coffee-consumption-over-the-last-century">per-capita coffee consumption in the US</a> fell almost continuously from a 1946 peak through the early 1990s. It wasn’t until the coming of Starbucks — now reviled as a harbinger of gentrification — that Americans showed that they would pay more for coffee that didn’t taste as if it had been strained through a gym sock.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then in the 2000s came specialty roasters such as Blue Bottle, Stumptown, Intelligentsia, Counter Culture, and Verve, which treated coffee the way good wineries treat wine — single origin, single farm, traceable lots, careful roast profiles, brewing methods tuned to the specific bean. The Specialty Coffee Association developed the <a href="https://atlanticspecialtycoffee.com/wp-content/uploads/SCAA-Cupping-Protocols-2005.pdf">cupping protocol</a> and the 100-point scoring system that gave coffees an objective quality scale.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And guess what? As the coffee got better, we drank more of it. In 2024 the National Coffee Association <a href="https://www.ncausa.org/Newsroom/Past-day-specialty-coffee-consumption-at-13-year-high">reported that 45 percent of US adults</a> had drunk speciality coffee in the past day, up around 80 percent since 2011 and surpassing conventional coffee consumption for the first time. Globally, the speciality coffee market hit <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/specialty-coffee-market-report">$111.5 billion in 2025</a>, while the number of <a href="https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/north-america-specialty-coffee-market/">specialty coffee shops in the US grew</a> 21 percent between 2017 and 2022. Which means that one, a cafe probably opened up down the street from you while you were reading this, and two, there’s no excuse now for bad coffee.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A cup of progress</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Coffee isn’t a cure-all, even if it can sometimes feel that way at 7 am on a Monday. Caffeine has a half-life of five to six hours in most adults, so drinking after 2 pm can mess with your sleep, which in turn can negate many of the health benefits of consumption. That’s one reason why <a href="https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article-pdf/46/8/749/61234547/ehae871.pdf">a 2025 analysis</a> found that while morning-only coffee drinkers were 16 percent less likely to die of any cause than non-drinkers, that benefit largely disappeared for all-day drinkers. For much the same reason, overconsumption — more than four cups or so in a day — can <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/expert-answers/coffee-and-health/faq-20058339">lead to anxiety</a>, headaches, and worse heart health. Regularly adding sugar or milk will <a href="https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/05/30/how-much-coffee-is-too-much">dilute or eliminate those benefits</a> as well. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s also reason to fear for the future of coffee. Coffee beans are sensitive souls, and climate change risks upsetting the very specific environments needed to make a decent cup. A <a href="https://dailycoffeenews.com/2026/04/02/major-ag-lender-warns-of-arabica-land-losses-from-climate-change/">2026 review by the agricultural lender Rabobank</a> projected that 20 percent of currently cultivated land for arabica beans may become unsuitable by 2050, while devastating coffee leaf rust outbreaks in Central America <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/more-coffee-harming-heat-due-to-carbon-pollution-2026">are projected</a> to worsen as temperature ranges expand the fungus&#8217;s range upward. Some regions like Ethiopia <a href="https://dailycoffeenews.com/2026/04/02/major-ag-lender-warns-of-arabica-land-losses-from-climate-change/">may actually become more hospitable</a> with warming, but if saving the world isn’t a good enough reason to support climate action, maybe saving your cuppa will be.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The more we learn about the things we eat and drink, it seems the more we have to worry about. But coffee is the exception. Its nutritional profile has improved under rigorous examination, just as its taste profile has improved under ever greater specialization and globalization. You’re not just drinking coffee every morning. You’re drinking a cup of progress.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/good-news-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Some deaf children are hearing again because of a new gene therapy]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/487590/gene-therapy-crispr-deafness-food-and-drug-administration" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=487590</id>
			<updated>2026-05-01T16:05:21-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-05-02T07:45:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Science" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[In a lab room, a toddler, deaf from birth, sits while a tone plays. There’s no reaction. His face does not change.&#160; Six weeks later, after a single injection of an experimental gene therapy, the same toddler is back in the same room. The tone plays. The toddler&#8217;s head turns toward the sound. And somewhere [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A bunch of blue DNA strands on a lighter blue background" data-caption="﻿This is what gene therapy can do in 2026. | Svetlana Repnitskaya/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Svetlana Repnitskaya/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/05/GettyImages-2202681107.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	﻿This is what gene therapy can do in 2026. | Svetlana Repnitskaya/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">In a lab room, a toddler, deaf from birth, sits while a tone plays. There’s no reaction. His face does not change.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Six weeks later, after a single injection of an experimental gene therapy, the same toddler is back in the same room. The tone plays. The toddler&#8217;s head turns toward the sound. And somewhere just off screen, the child’s grandfather says his name. The boy turns and looks. He can hear.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;When the parents realized their child had a response to sound they cried,&#8221; says Dr. Yilai Shu of the Eye &amp; ENT Hospital of Fudan University, who co-led the trial, in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO13SACrsoo">video that showed the results</a>. &#8220;The whole family cried.&#8221; The video cuts to another child, thirteen weeks post-treatment, dancing to music.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is what gene therapy can do in 2026. The clip comes from the <a href="https://masseyeandear.org/news/press-releases/2024/01/gene-therapy-restores-hearing-children-hereditary-deafness">international clinical trial</a> of an OTOF gene therapy run by Mass Eye and Ear and China’s Fudan University that provided the underlying science behind a drug the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved last week.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On April 23, the FDA granted accelerated approval to <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-ever-gene-therapy-treatment-genetic-hearing-loss-under-national-priority-voucher">Otarmeni</a>, a gene therapy from the pharma company Regeneron for severe-to-profound hearing loss caused by mutations in a gene called OTOF. In a pivotal trial, <a href="https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/otarmenitm-lunsotogene-parvec-cwha-approved-fda-first-and-only/">80 percent of treated patients gained measurable hearing</a>, and 42 percent reached the level needed to pick up whispers. Two and a half years after treatment, <a href="https://www.massgeneralbrigham.org/en/about/newsroom/press-releases/otof-deafness-gene-therapy-trial-update">90 percent of patients</a> in the underlying multi-center trial were still hearing.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s a drug that certainly feels like a miracle to those in the trials, taking patients from silence to sound. But what can feel almost as miraculous is how far the broader field of gene therapies like Otarmeni — which deliver a working copy of a broken gene directly into a patient&#8217;s cells — have come.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 1999, the nascent field of gene therapy <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1303270/">all but collapsed</a> when a teenager named <a href="https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/the-death-of-jesse-gelsinger-20-years-later/">Jesse Gelsinger</a> died four days after being injected with an experimental gene therapy at the University of Pennsylvania, the first publicly identified death in a gene therapy clinical trial. In the years that followed, funding evaporated, careers ended, and “gene therapy” became a cautionary tale.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It took years and major changes in how gene therapies are delivered for the field to recover. And now, 27 years after Gelsinger’s tragic death, we have a gene therapy that can effectively reverse some kinds of congenital hearing loss. The next decade is no longer about whether gene therapy can deliver clinical results. It&#8217;s about whether it can deliver results to enough patients, at prices people can actually pay, for diseases that affect more than a few hundred kids a year.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Get those answers right, and what feels like a miracle to some in 2026 could become ordinary medicine.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Back from the brink</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After Gelsinger died, the FDA halted gene therapy trials in the US, the National Institutes of Health tightened oversight, and the principal investigator of the Penn study — James Wilson — was <a href="https://cen.acs.org/business/The-redemption-of-James-Wilson-gene-therapy-pioneer/97/i36">barred from clinical trials for five years</a> and stripped of his administrative titles. In the lean years that followed, two things happened.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The first was a change in delivery. Gene therapies use engineered viruses to deliver restorative genes to a patient’s cells. The therapy used on Gelsinger was carried by an adenovirus, which <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32508823/">are highly immunogenic</a>, meaning the human immune system recognizes them and reacts violently. It was that immune reaction that killed Gelsinger.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the aftermath, the field increasingly turned to adeno-associated viruses (AAV), which are smaller, more tolerable, and capable of slipping a payload into the right cells without setting off a five-alarm immune reaction. AAV vectors are now the workhorse of in vivo gene therapy, including in Otarmeni.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The second thing that happened was CRISPR. <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2020/press-release/">Adapted in 2012</a> by Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier into a precision gene-editing tool, CRISPR could do something AAV could not: find a specific spot in the patient&#8217;s own DNA and rewrite the letters there, correcting the broken gene in place. CRISPR also earned gene therapy a cultural moment it hadn&#8217;t had since before Gelsinger. <a href="https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/big-pharma-partnerships-record-investment-raise-profile-regenerative-medicine-2021">Money and talent</a> flooded back into the field — including into the AAV programs that produced Otarmeni.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Disease by disease</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The clearest sign something has shifted in the field is the lengthening list of therapy approvals. In December 2017, the FDA cleared <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/12/19/571962226/first-gene-therapy-for-inherited-disease-gets-fda-approval">Luxturna</a> for hereditary blindness from RPE65 mutations — the first gene therapy in the US for an inherited disease. Two years later, Zolgensma was approved for <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/24/health/novartis-zolgensma-gene-therapy-fda-approval-bn">spinal muscular atrophy</a>, a wasting disease that kills children before age two in its severe form. In 2022, Hemgenix <a href="https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/hemophilia-gene-therapy-fda-approval-hemgenix-csl-uniqure/636999/">made</a> hemophilia B the first bleeding disorder with a one-shot fix. In 2023, Casgevy and Lyfgenia <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-gene-therapies-treat-patients-sickle-cell-disease">did the same</a> for sickle cell, with Casegevy becoming the first FDA-approved CRISPR therapy.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The sickle cell approvals matter most because they are the first for a patient population that is large; 100,000 Americans <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/sickle-cell/data/index.html">suffer from it</a> — mostly Black, and historically underserved. The gene therapies are also proof of concept that the underlying CRISPR mechanism can be redirected at multiple different targets. Verve Therapeutics is using base editing to permanently disable PCSK9, a gene that controls how much LDL cholesterol stays in the bloodstream, with the promise of one-time treatment instead of daily statins for patients at high cardiovascular risk. <a href="https://vervetx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/verve-therapeutics-announces-positive-initial-data-heart-2-phase/">Early trial data</a> showed a 53 percent average drop in LDL cholesterol. Trials are open for <a href="https://www.retinalphysician.com/issues/2025/october/gene-therapies-for-inherited-retinal-diseases">additional hereditary-blindness genes</a>, <a href="https://www.cgtlive.com/view/at845-shows-promising-efficacy-late-onset-pompe-disease-phase-1-2-trial">Pompe disease</a>, and a long list of single-gene conditions. </p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The cost of magic</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The science is working, but paying for it is another matter.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These are the list prices for the recent approvals: Luxturna at <a href="https://sparktx.com/press_releases/fda-approves-spark-therapeutics-luxturna-voretigene-neparvovec-rzyl-a-one-time-gene-therapy-for-patients-with-confirmed-biallelic-rpe65-mutation-associated-retinal-dystrophy/">$850,000 per patient</a>, Zolgensma at <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/24/health/novartis-zolgensma-gene-therapy-fda-approval-bn">$2.13 million</a>, Casgevy at <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2023/12/08/fda-approves-casgevy-crispr-based-medicine-for-treatment-of-sickle-cell-disease/">$2.2 million</a>, Lyfgenia at <a href="https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/crispr-sickle-cell-price-millions-gene-therapy-vertex-bluebird/702066/">$3.1 million</a>, <a href="https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/csl-and-uniqures-hemophilia-b-gene-therapy-scores-approval-35-million-price-tag">Hemgenix at $3.5 million</a>. Two-thirds of US sickle cell patients are on Medicaid, and only <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/23/sickle-cell-disease-gene-therapies-casgevy-lyfgenia-insurance-cost-issues.html">16,000 are eligible for Casgevy</a> under the current label. Regeneron has <a href="https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-announces-agreement-us-government-help-lower-drug">pledged</a> to provide Otarmeni for free in the US, but that works only because the OTOF patient pool is small — an estimated <a href="https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/regeneron-fda-otarmeni-hearing-loss-gene-therapy-voucher/818345/">50 babies a year</a>. That math won’t work for more common disorders.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While cost may not be a problem for the families that could qualify for Otarmeni, it’s not the only concern. Cochlear implants, the standard treatment for OTOF patients for decades, have been <a href="https://pubs.asha.org/doi/10.1044/1059-0889.0201.26">contested within Deaf culture since the 1980s</a>, with many arguing that deafness should be seen as identity rather than deficit. Gene therapy applied to infants makes that question all the more fraught, since the children treated with gene therapy cannot consent to the change. And not everyone would make that choice.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Beyond economic and cultural questions, we lack gene therapy for Alzheimer&#8217;s, schizophrenia, or any of the polygenic — meaning, caused by multiple genes — conditions that cause massive amounts of suffering. The cochlear is a good gene-therapy target because it is small and accessible, and OTOF is a single-gene disorder. The brain and Alzheimer’s are neither of those things. The platform that is working in one child&#8217;s inner ear in 2026 is not about to deliver universal cures by 2030, or well beyond.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What gene therapies will do, however, is keep filling in the list. The next time a parent gets a rare-disease diagnosis for their child, the question will increasingly be not whether someone is working on a gene therapy, but how soon it will be ready.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/good-news-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[We’re missing the economic fallout of the Iran war — just like we did with Covid]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/487190/iran-strait-of-hormuz-energy-oil-covid-coronavirus-stock-market" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=487190</id>
			<updated>2026-04-28T16:35:22-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-04-29T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Covid-19" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Economy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Energy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Iran" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[In the early weeks of the Covid pandemic, in those days when public spaces emptied and hospitals filled up, I used to see this magazine cover from 2017 being passed around social media. The story was a familiar one to me, because I was the one who had written it: The posts were all versions [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Market reaction Covid" data-caption="Screens tracking share prices are filled with red at the New York Stock Exchange on February 28, 2020. | Scott Heins/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Scott Heins/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-1204061069.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Screens tracking share prices are filled with red at the New York Stock Exchange on February 28, 2020. | Scott Heins/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">In the early weeks of the Covid pandemic, in those days when public spaces emptied and hospitals filled up, I used to see this <a href="https://time.com/4766624/next-global-security/">magazine cover from 2017</a> being passed around social media. The story was a familiar one to me, because I was the one who had written it:</p>

<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">May 2017 <a href="https://twitter.com/TIME?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TIME</a> “Warning: we are not ready for the next pandemic” <a href="https://t.co/0RxSSsE1i9">pic.twitter.com/0RxSSsE1i9</a></p>&mdash; Alex Godoy-Faúndez (@AlexGodoyF_) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexGodoyF_/status/1246795312653623296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2020</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The posts were all versions of the same thing: The warning signs had been there, we knew something like this was coming, why weren’t we prepared? All of which was true, and all of which I had been trying to get across in that story, which was itself the culmination of years of reporting on emerging diseases: <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/404099/covid-coronavirus-pandemic-sars-mrna-vaccine-warp-speed">SARS in Hong Kong in 2003</a>, <a href="https://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1628191_1626317_1632251-1,00.html">H5N1 bird flu in Indonesia in 2007</a>, <a href="https://time.com/archive/6915373/h1n1-national-emergency-time-for-concern-not-panic/">H1N1 flu in 2009</a>. Surely I’d seen Covid coming too.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Except I hadn’t. Through January and into February 2020, as lockdowns and cases of what would soon be called Covid-19 accumulated in China and then elsewhere, I remained surprisingly nonchalant. I assume it would burn out, much like bird flu itself or <a href="https://time.com/87767/mers-shows-that-the-next-pandemic-is-only-a-plane-flight-away/">MERS</a> or <a href="https://time.com/3110832/what-comes-after-ebola/">Ebola</a> or any number of scary viruses that didn’t quite have the legs to cause global catastrophes. If you’d asked me for predictions, I probably would have said a (hopefully) more sophisticated version of what President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/politics/covid-disappearing-trump-comment-tracker/">said on February 25</a>, a day before the <a href="https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/02/26/first-case-of-possible-community-transmission-of-covid-19-reported-in-u-s/">first suspected community transmission</a> in the United States: Covid was “going to go away.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I was wrong, obviously. I couldn’t make myself see it — or maybe, I couldn’t make myself believe it, believe that we were about to experience sudden, transformative change. And I wasn’t alone. On February 19, 2020, just before Italy reported its first cluster of Covid cases, the S&amp;P Index <a href="https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/reflecting-on-four-years-since-pre-covid-market-peak/">hit an all-time high</a>, which is not the behavior of markets anticipating what actually happened next: an unprecedented global economic shutdown.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I now believe a similar economic blindness is at work today, with a different crisis.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The crisis we’re not pricing in</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That crisis is the war with Iran, and specifically the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The numbers are not subtle. The International Energy Agency calls it the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026">largest disruption in the history of global oil markets</a>, with global supply down by more than 10 million barrels a day in March. The Atlantic Council notes that the<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/the-strait-of-hormuz-closure-forces-a-choice-ration-oil-now-or-pay-a-steep-price-later/"> 1973 oil embargo</a> — the shock that defined a decade of American economic anxiety — pulled 7 percent of global supply off the market. Hormuz has cut that same supply by 13 percent, and the infrastructure damage from the war and the shutdown will take months or years to repair.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The downstream effects are everywhere if you look. In Como, Mississippi, a 73-year-old corn farmer told NPR he is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/04/25/nx-s1-5795674/farmers-tariffs-iran-trump-mississippi">buying diesel “hand to mouth”</a>; fertilizer is up 60 percent, an increase so steep that he may not fertilize his corn this spring at all. In Dhaka, vehicles are lining up around blocks for propane refills. The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/philippine-president-declares-energy-emergency-as-impact-of-iran-war-felt">Philippines declared a state of national energy emergency</a>. South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam are rationing fuel. <a href="https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/en/lufthansa-group-optimises-flight-offering-in-summer-across-all-six-hubs/">Lufthansa has already canceled</a> 20,000 summer flights.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And yet in the same week <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/economy/iran-war-global-growth.html">the New York Times put all of this on its front page</a>, the S&amp;P 500 hit another new all-time high. The disconnect is dizzying. As one analyst quoted by David Dayen in the American Prospect put it, “The market priced peace. The oil system didn’t.”&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How we miss what’s in front of us</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So why the gap? Why are markets, and many of us, treating the largest energy disruption in history as just another potentially bad thing that probably won’t actually happen?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The answer, I think, speaks to the same factors that kept me from believing a pandemic was coming in February 2020. Human beings are systematically bad at recognizing the moment when a slow-moving or theoretical threat becomes a clear and present one.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Wharton economists Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther call this the <a href="https://impact.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Ostrich-Paradox-issue-brief.pdf">ostrich paradox</a>, and they identify six biases that drive it: myopia, amnesia, optimism, inertia, simplification, and herding. Investors are betting on near-term political resolution (myopia), drawing on the pattern that Trump has often reversed market-damaging policies like tariffs (amnesia and optimism), defaulting to buy-the-dip behavior (inertia and herding), and tracking earnings while ignoring the effects of physical supply chain disruptions (simplification).&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The deeper problem is that human cognition is built for sudden threats with a specific source — the punch you can see coming — and badly miscalibrated for diffuse, distributed ones. <a href="https://science.time.com/2013/08/19/in-denial-about-the-climate-the-psychological-battle-over-global-warming/">Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert has argued</a> that gradual threats fail to trip the brain’s alarm, leaving us “soundly asleep in a burning bed.” A 2025 <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aeb2654">paper in <em>Science</em> by UCLA’s Rachit Dubey</a> and colleagues showed this formally: When information arrives in continuous form — fertilizer up 60 percent in Mississippi, propane queues in Dhaka, another flight canceled in Frankfurt — people fail to perceive a shift even when the shift is real. A binary headline (&#8220;the strait closed&#8221;) would register more sharply. But the closure of Hormuz, like the early spread of Covid, hasn&#8217;t been a headline. It’s been a process.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gradually, then suddenly</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But you can only ignore reality for so long, and when transformative events happen, change comes fast.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Five weeks after the market hit that all-time high on February 19, 2020, it was down 34 percent — the <a href="https://everhartadvisors.com/the-coronavirus-crash-what-have-we-learned/">fastest correction from a peak in market history</a>, as Covid was finally priced in. The information that produced the crash had mostly been available weeks earlier. What changed was not the data but the integration of the data: the moment when the abstract became concrete, when <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html">Wuhan and then Italy and then Seattle</a> made what had been a story about Over There into a story about Right Here. Markets didn&#8217;t suddenly become smart. They just became unable to stay dumb.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While I can’t see the Iran crisis causing anywhere near the economic disruption of Covid, I do think we are weeks from a similar shift. In the spirit of <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/473166/forecasts-2026-trump-congress-democrats-musk-artificial-intelligence-hurricanes">Future Perfect forecasting</a>, I’ll express that thinking as a falsifiable prediction: If the Strait of Hormuz remains materially restricted through June, the S&amp;P 500 will be at least 10 percent off its April 22 high by Labor Day.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">You shouldn’t take financial advice from me, but I’m no more alone in my pessimism today than I was in my careless optimism as the pandemic was spreading. <a href="https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2026/3/20/the-coming-oil-shock-recession-a-primer">Princeton Policy Advisors has forecast</a> a US recession beginning in May; the IMF, which projected 3.3 percent global growth in January, has now cut its baseline to 3.1 percent and <a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf">added an adverse scenario at 2.5</a> — the latter approaching territory the world hasn&#8217;t seen outside the 2008 crisis and the pandemic. Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay, told Bloomberg last week that the current market reminds him of February 2020: “<a href="https://jianshiapp.com/no-substantial-progress-in-us-iran-negotiations-why-is-the-stock-market-booming-again/">Only when it truly disrupted our lives did the market see bigger shocks</a>.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I missed the Covid pandemic, even with a magazine cover predicting it sitting on my desk. The market missed it too, right up to the day it didn&#8217;t. I hope we don’t miss the next big disruption. There is still time, but probably not much.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect"><em><strong>Future Perfect</strong></em></a><em>&nbsp;newsletter.&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup"><em><strong>Sign up here!</strong></em></a></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The most successful health campaign in modern history]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/484165/smoking-tobacco-cancer-health-centers-for-disease-control" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=484165</id>
			<updated>2026-04-24T06:09:02-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-04-24T06:09:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[This story was originally published in The Highlight, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get access to member-exclusive stories every month, become a Vox Member today. How old am I? Old enough to have flown on planes that had ashtrays in the armrests. Old enough to remember restaurants with smoking sections separated from the nonsmoking section by, essentially, nothing. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Red and white No Smoking sign on a glass wall in a modern public area." data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Getty Images/Tartezy" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/GettyImages-2209397059.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>This story was originally published in </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/484080/welcome-to-the-april-issue-of-the-highlight"><em>The Highlight</em></a><em>, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get access to member-exclusive stories every month, </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/support-membership?itm_campaign=article-header-Q42024&amp;itm_medium=site&amp;itm_source=in-article"><em>become a Vox Member today</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">How old am I? Old enough to have flown on planes that had ashtrays in the armrests. Old enough to remember restaurants with smoking sections separated from the nonsmoking section by, essentially, nothing. Old enough to remember when “smoking or non” was a question the restaurant host actually asked you. Old enough that in the year I graduated high school — 1997 — <a href="https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-smoking-trends">more than a third of high schoolers smoked</a>. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’m 47 — not ancient, even if I sometimes feel that way — and yet the America I grew up in the 1980s was still so saturated with cigarette smoke that these memories feel like dispatches from another civilization. In 1980, <a href="https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-smoking-trends">roughly a third</a> of American adults still smoked. The smoking mascot Joe Camel, whom critics would later accuse of being designed to appeal to children, <a href="https://www.aei.org/articles/the-historical-significance-of-joe-camel/">debuted</a> the year I turned 10.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now here’s a figure from 2024: <a href="https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/EVIDpha2500339">9.9 percent</a>. That’s the share of American adults who smoke cigarettes, according to data from the National Health Interview Survey analyzed in a paper <a href="https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/EVIDpha2500339">published this month in<em> NEJM Evidence</em></a>. It’s the first time the rate has fallen below 10 percent in the history of the survey. In the language of public health, smoking in America is now officially “<a href="https://www.statnews.com/2026/03/17/cigarette-smoking-rate-below-10-percent-cdc-data-says/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThings%20below%2010%25%20are%20considered,million%20people%20who%20use%20cigarettes.">rare</a>.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This decline — from 42.4 percent in 1965 to 9.9 percent, over about 60 years — is one of the great public health achievements of the modern era. It didn’t happen because of a single breakthrough or a miracle drug. It happened because science, policy, litigation, and sheer collective will chipped away at the problem for six decades against the fierce resistance of one of the most powerful industries on Earth. If you’re looking for evidence that large-scale, long-term progress is possible — even when the odds seem impossible — there are few better examples than the story of smoking.</p>
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The smoke got in your eye</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The scale of the change is hard to appreciate now. At the peak, Americans consumed more than <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/consequences-smoking-exec-summary.pdf">4,000 cigarettes per person per year</a>, or more than half a pack a day. Roughly <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1470496/">half of all physicians smoked</a>. Cigarette companies spent billions on marketing and lobbied ferociously against any regulation while actively suppressing evidence of harm.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The toll was staggering. Since 1964, <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/surgeongeneral/reports-and-publications/tobacco/consequences-smoking-factsheet/index.html#:~:text=Scientific%20evidence%20contained%20in%20this,the%20risks%20of%20smoking%20cigarettes.">more than 20 million Americans</a> have died from smoking-related causes. Smoking still <a href="https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm#:~:text=1%2C3-,Cigarettes%20and%20Death,including%20deaths%20from%20secondhand%20smoke)">kills approximately 480,000 Americans per year</a>, contributing to <a href="https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm#:~:text=Overall%20mortality%20among%20both%20male,Secondhand%20Smoke%20and%20Death">about one in five deaths</a>. Globally, tobacco killed roughly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/smoking">100 million people in the 20th century</a> — more than the <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war">total number of people killed</a> in WWII. It is, by a wide margin, the leading cause of preventable death in the modern world.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The turning point came on January 11, 1964, when Surgeon General Luther Terry <a href="https://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/spotlight/nn/feature/smoking">convened a press conference</a> at the State Department to announce what his advisory committee had found after reviewing more than 7,000 scientific articles: Cigarette smoking causes lung cancer and probably causes heart disease. He deliberately chose to announce the findings on a Saturday — both to minimize stock market fallout and maximize Sunday newspaper coverage. It worked. The report, as Terry later recalled, “hit the country like a bombshell.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But the tobacco industry didn’t go quietly. <a href="https://aacrjournals.org/cebp/article/16/6/1070/260310/The-Cigarette-Controversy">Internal documents</a> showed that cigarette companies knew smoking caused cancer as early as the late 1950s and worked tirelessly to conceal it. A famous R.J. Reynolds internal memo <a href="https://habitablefuture.org/resources/doubt-is-their-product/">distilled the strategy</a>: “Doubt is our product.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For decades, the industry funded sham research organizations, lobbied Congress with enormous budgets, and <a href="https://www.lung.org/research/sotc/by-the-numbers/10-bad-things-to-entice-kids">targeted children</a> with advertising. In 1994, the CEOs of the seven largest tobacco companies <a href="https://www.tortmuseum.org/the-tobacco-cases/">testified before Congress</a> that they did not believe nicotine was addictive. Internal documents proved they knew otherwise.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The industry had, at that point, never lost a lawsuit — in more than 800 cases. But that would change. In 1998, 46 state attorneys general reached the <a href="https://www.tortmuseum.org/98-tobacco-settlement/">Master Settlement Agreement</a> with the tobacco companies — a $246 billion settlement, the largest redistribution of corporate wrongdoing costs in American legal history. In 2006, a federal judge went so far as to rule that the tobacco companies <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2006/08/judge-tobacco-industry-violated-rico/#:~:text=In%20that%20opinion%2C%20the%20Court,'">had violated</a> the RICO Act — the racketeering statute typically reserved for organized crime.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>How cigarettes were beaten</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">No single policy killed the cigarette. It was a combination of interventions deployed over decades: <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/features/anniversary-report-smoking-health">warning labels</a> on packages (1965), a ban on <a href="https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/law/cigarette-advertising-ban">broadcast advertising</a> (1970), smoke-free workplace laws (spreading <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2722043/#:~:text=The%20movement%20to%20promote%20smoke,on%20smoking%20in%20private%20workplaces.">from Minnesota in 1975</a> to most of the country by now), growing awareness of the <a href="https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/20799">risks of secondhand smoke</a> (1986), progressive tax increases (<a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco">a 10 percent price hike reduces consumption about 4 percent</a>), FDA <a href="https://www.fda.gov/tobacco-products/rules-regulations-and-guidance-related-tobacco-products/family-smoking-prevention-and-tobacco-control-act-overview#:~:text=To%20protect%20the%20public%20health,and%20marketing%20of%20tobacco%20products.">regulatory authority</a> (2009), and cessation programs from nicotine patches to the CDC’s <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco-surgeon-general-reports/about/history.html">Tips From Former Smokers</a> campaign. Maybe most importantly, smoking went from being something almost everyone did to something that was banned in most public spaces — which changed social norms as much as any law.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The result: an estimated <a href="https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2014/01/8-million-lives-saved-over-50-years-by-quitting-smoking--study-f.html#:~:text=Since%20the%20surgeon%20general's%20groundbreaking,in%20Yale's%20Department%20of%20Biostatistics.">8 million lives saved</a> between 1964 and 2014 alone, representing 157 million years of life — an average of about 20 extra years for each person who didn’t die prematurely from smoking. A 40-year-old American man in 2014&nbsp; <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4056770/#:~:text=Exposure,Conclusions%20and%20Relevance">could expect to live nearly eight years longer</a> than his 1964 counterpart, and roughly a third of that improvement comes from tobacco control alone.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The warning label</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But we still have a ways to go in the effort to permanently stub out tobacco.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one thing, 9.9 percent is an average, and averages lie. Smoking rates among people with a GED — meaning they didn’t graduate high school — are <a href="https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/EVIDpha2500339">still 42.8 percent</a>, barely less than the national rate in 1964. Rates remain high among low-income Americans (24.4 percent), rural residents (27 percent), people with disabilities (21.5 percent), and workers in construction and extraction jobs (around 29 percent). As overall consumption rates have declined, smoking has increasingly become a disease of poverty and disadvantage. The people who still smoke are disproportionately the people with the fewest resources to help them quit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Second, even as cigarette smoking goes away, nicotine hasn’t. <a href="https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/EVIDpha2500339">E-cigarette use holds steady at 7 percent</a> among adults, and while cigarettes are almost extinct among 18- to 24-year-olds, nearly 15 percent vape nicotine.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But vaping is still better for you than smoking is. E-cigarettes have helped people quit tobacco and are <a href="https://www.heart.org/en/healthy-living/healthy-lifestyle/quit-smoking-tobacco/is-vaping-safer-than-smoking">generally less harmful</a> than lighting dried leaves on fire and inhaling the smoke, <a href="https://www.vox.com/public-health/410443/vaping-conundrum-public-health-youth-ecigarettes">even if their full long-term effects won’t be known for years</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Third, notably, this milestone of government action was not actually announced by the US government, even though that’s where the data comes from. Federal cuts have <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2026/03/17/cigarette-smoking-rate-below-10-percent-cdc-data-says/">decimated the CDC’s Office on Smoking and Health</a>, the very office that has tracked and driven this progress for decades. Instead, the analysis was published by an <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/public-health-alerts/public-health-alerts-tobacco-use-among-us-adults-2023-2024">independent researcher through NEJM Evidence’s “Public Health Alerts” initiative</a> — a new collaboration created specifically to fill gaps left by the gutted CDC. There’s every reason to worry that the federal health infrastructure as it stands now will struggle to keep the momentum going against tobacco.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The fight isn’t over</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And in the rest of the world, we have a lot more work to do. About <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco">80 percent of the world’s 1.3 billion tobacco users</a> live in low- and middle-income countries. Tobacco kills over 7 million people a year worldwide, a number is projected to rise to 10 million by 2030 on current trends. While the 20th century saw roughly 100 million tobacco deaths, mostly in rich countries, some estimates project <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/smoking">up to 1 billion in the 21st century</a>, mostly in developing nations. Cigarette consumption in the Eastern Mediterranean and African WHO regions actually <a href="https://ash.org.uk/resources/view/tobacco-and-the-developing-world">increased by 65 and 52 percent, respectively</a>, between 1980 and 2016.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But looking at what’s happened in the US, we know those trends can change. From 42.6 percent to 9.9 percent, in 60 years. Eight million lives saved. This is the kind of progress that’s so gradual you barely notice it happening. And then you look at the numbers, and they’re astonishing.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The ashtrays are gone from the armrests now. The smoking sections are gone from the restaurants. The yellowish ceilings have been repainted. Most Americans under 30 have probably never seen anyone light a cigarette indoors. And the world they live in is measurably, dramatically safer because of decisions that were made — over decades, against long odds — before most of them were born. That’s what progress looks like.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/good-news-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The simple question that could change your career]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/486107/effective-altruism-job-career-advice-charity" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=486107</id>
			<updated>2026-04-17T17:03:09-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-04-18T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future of Work" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Philanthropy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Devon Fritz had his midlife crisis a little early.&#160; He spent his 20s writing tax software, staying on track to hit all the life targets he&#8217;d set for himself: house, kids, financial security. And then, one day, he did the math and projected forward what the next 20 years of his life would look like. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Career Fair sign" data-caption="Job seekers attend a career fair in Harlem hosted by Assemblymember Jordan Wright on December 10, 2025, in New York City. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Spencer Platt/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/GettyImages-2251250951.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	Job seekers attend a career fair in Harlem hosted by Assemblymember Jordan Wright on December 10, 2025, in New York City. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Devon Fritz had his midlife crisis a little early.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">He spent his 20s writing tax software, staying on track to hit all the life targets he&#8217;d set for himself: house, kids, financial security. And then, one day, he did the math and projected forward what the next 20 years of his life would look like. But instead of relief, “I had this weird feeling that I’d totally missed the target,” he told me recently.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;I looked around at my colleagues, who kind of felt stuck in this place,” he said. “They had gotten to this cushy job where things were good, pay was good, benefits were good, but nobody seemed happy.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This might sound familiar. Who among us hasn’t had the occasional crisis of meaning, perhaps mentally scored to the Talking Heads’ “Once in a Lifetime”? (The last part might just be me.) But most of us shake off those existential doubts and press on, for better or for worse.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Devon Fritz, however, is not like you or me. Searching for a more meaningful life and career, he tried volunteering with refugee-aid groups in Germany during the 2015 migrant crisis — only to be discouraged by how slow, unresponsive, and ineffective he found the nonprofit world.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Eventually, at a conference in Oxford, England, he discovered <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/387190/earn-to-give-capitalism-effective-altruism-philanthropy-charity">effective altruism</a>, or EA. EA is built on the idea that we should use rigorous evidence and cost-benefit analysis to do the most good possible, very much including how we donate to charity. A dollar to one organization might save a life; a dollar to another might buy a commemorative tote bag. EA takes that gap in impact seriously and follows the math wherever it leads, always searching for the donation or the act that can create the most measurable positive impact, especially in terms of lives saved.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The idea clicked with Fritz, and over the next several years, he rebuilt his career around a single, very EA-inflected question: How can you build a career that really matters? The result is his book <a href="https://www.highimpactprofessionals.org/book?gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=23608929559&amp;gbraid=0AAAAApZXmGTHgnubfWqQSjR6XQhSAjDX2&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwtIfPBhAzEiwAv9RTJvReZfwl_VyBEXR7RK22I1JklRTwBnVLrzCzUEWC8rWcUMARGjSlbBoC7B8QAvD_BwE"><em>The High-Impact Professional&#8217;s Playbook</em></a>, the manual Fritz says he wished he&#8217;d had during his early existential crisis. The book lays out concrete paths through which a person with a regular job can actually create outsized positive impact on the world.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What follows are five of the most useful ideas from it. And while Fritz&#8217;s framework comes out of effective altruism — which, with all its hyper-rationality, can sometimes seem cold or weird to outsiders — he argues that the lessons have value for everyone.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;Being impactful — in its best form — doesn&#8217;t tell you what to do,” he told me. “It just says do stuff. Figure out what&#8217;s good, and do something that&#8217;s really good.&#8221;&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Next best may be better than best</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The intellectual spine of Fritz&#8217;s book is a concept called “counterfactuality,” which, I’ll admit, may make you want to stop reading now. But while it’s a 22-point word in Scrabble, counterfactuality is actually pretty simple. For any action meant to do good, ask yourself: What would have happened if I <em>hadn&#8217;t</em> done it? If the honest answer is &#8220;basically the same thing,&#8221; your actual impact is smaller than you think.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Haindavi Kandarpa, one of the case studies in Fritz’s book, was at Boston Consulting Group working on public health and education projects in India and Bangladesh. That sounds both important and good, but when Kandarpa asked the counterfactual question about her own role, the answer was devastating: Nothing would really change. If she wasn’t doing it, someone equally competent would have taken her slot and done roughly the same work. That realization led her to leave for a charity startup incubator.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A lot of the standard advice about doing good falters when faced with the counterfactual. If 500 people apply for a job at an elite nonprofit and one gets it, the actual impact of the hire is the often-small gap between them and the closet runner-up. Fritz&#8217;s paradoxical conclusion is that you can have more counterfactual impact in obscure places nobody is looking — like the charity ranked fifth on the effectiveness list, not first. That can be hard to hear, especially for high performers used to competing for every top prize, but the status hit is worth it for the sake of actually making a difference.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">It’s not just what you do — it’s what you do with your money</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Unless you’re a full-time volunteer or are extremely bad at salary negotiation, you get money for your work. And what you do with that money can be just as impactful as what you did to get it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">According to a 2024 <a href="https://www.givewell.org/">GiveWell analysis</a> cited in his book, you can statistically save one human life if you give just $3,000 — provided it’s to the most effective charity. Switching just 10 percent of your charitable giving from a typical charity to an evidence-backed one can help up to 100 times more people or animals, all for the same cost. That is a life-saving impact.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is the move with the lowest barrier to entry in the entire book, and the one most influenced by effective altruism. You don&#8217;t have to quit your job, move countries, or learn a new skillset. You keep doing what you’re doing but write the check — or, better, set up a recurring transfer — to an organization on a credible evaluator’s list. (<a href="https://www.givewell.org/?gad_campaignid=10290048369&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADp4pzj4uxSj_YyS_6njZi_mbFnJ8&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwtIfPBhAzEiwAv9RTJnDcckN0VEqB09PszHOjudELAiPnU9PwCVI2S6ReY5FojAmhv8ZMLxoCucYQAvD_BwE">GiveWell</a> is a great place to begin.) You can start at 1 percent of income and see how it feels.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Your workplace is a lever</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most people don’t think of their workplace as something they can change. But if you have any influence over procurement, hiring, 401(k) match programs, charitable giving policies, or the company&#8217;s public positions, you have access to budgets and decisions that could dwarf what you can do on your own.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A mid-level manager who convinces their company to enroll in a workplace-giving program that defaults to effective charities can route more money in a single policy change than they could personally donate over a decade.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Nonprofits desperately need people who know how things work</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The most consistently surprising path in Fritz&#8217;s book is trusteeship and advisory work. Charities and NGOs are often filled with well-meaning people who desperately want to do good, Fritz told me, but “they don&#8217;t have anybody even thinking” about quotidian details like finance. Luciana Vilar, another case study in the book, spent years in corporate finance before joining two nonprofit boards and was routinely the only person in the room who knew how to build a real budget.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you are a competent finance person, lawyer, HR professional, or operations manager — which includes basically anyone who has worked inside a functioning company — you probably have skills that even well-funded nonprofits are desperate for. Giving few hours of your week to board or advisory time can unlock capacity an organization can&#8217;t buy, and it doesn&#8217;t require a career switch.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Your network has more leverage than you think</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Fritz&#8217;s most striking claim is that the most time-efficient path to making a difference isn&#8217;t your career or your donations; it&#8217;s the people you already know.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If an effective but under-resourced charity is trying to fill a role, and you spend an hour emailing the five people in your network who&#8217;d be a good fit, and one gets hired, the counterfactual math of what you’ve done is absurdly high. And it didn&#8217;t require you to change jobs or write a check. All you had to do was send some emails.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s the path Fritz himself has taken, starting <a href="https://www.highimpactprofessionals.org/">High Impact Professionals</a>, which has placed dozens of mid-career people into higher-impact roles, all while rigorously measuring its own counterfactual impact. (When a candidate in the network takes a job, they ask the employer how good the next-best candidate was. When it&#8217;s very close, they count less impact.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The same network effects can work with donations. Fritz describes people raising $1,000 or more by posting on social media a few weeks before their birthday, asking friends to donate to an effective charity instead of sending a gift. A lot of &#8220;how can I make a difference&#8221; agonizing is really about not wanting to look at the lever that&#8217;s already in your hand.<br><br>I&#8217;ve talked to enough people lately, including myself in the mirror, to know that low-grade despair is becoming our default setting. The problems of the world feel too large, individual action feels too small, and it can feel like the honest move is to just <a href="https://oll.libertyfund.org/quotes/voltaire-in-em-candide-em-says-that-tending-one-s-own-garden-is-not-only-a-private-activity-but-also-productive-1759">tend your garden</a>.&nbsp;But when I pushed Fritz on this, he gave me an answer I keep coming back to. &#8220;There are big problems,” he acknowledged. “But that means it’s a great time to jump in and try to solve them.&#8221;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That can sound naive — but it’s also right. A world without problems wouldn&#8217;t need any of us. The world we actually have needs all the help it can get, and the bar for being useful in it is lower than we think.</p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[How the Iran war came for elevator rides, street lights, and even butter chicken]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/484383/iran-war-coal-strait-hormuz-oil-tankers-climate-change" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=484383</id>
			<updated>2026-03-31T18:28:23-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-04-01T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Energy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Food" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Iran" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Renewable Energy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Butter chicken has disappeared from some restaurant menus in India. Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a public holiday. Laos cut its school week to three days. Egypt ordered shops and cafes to close by 9 pm. In Thailand, government workers were told to take the stairs instead of the elevator. And in South Korea, the [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="a closed restaurant storefront" data-caption="A closed restaurant is seen due to a shortage of commercial liquefied petroleum gas cylinders in Chennai on March 10, 2026, due to disruptions in the supply chain amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. | R. Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="R. Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/GettyImages-2265269590.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A closed restaurant is seen due to a shortage of commercial liquefied petroleum gas cylinders in Chennai on March 10, 2026, due to disruptions in the supply chain amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. | R. Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Butter chicken has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/29/world/middleeast/iran-war-global-impact-economy-fuel.html">disappeared from some restaurant menus</a> in India. Sri Lanka <a href="https://nationnews.com/2026/03/17/sri-lanka-declares-weekly-wednesday-public-holiday-to-conserve-fuel/">declared every Wednesday a public holiday</a>. Laos <a href="https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40064138">cut its school week to three days</a>. Egypt <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/africa/2026-03-29-shops-and-restaurants-in-egypt-told-to-close-early-as-energy-crisis-deepens">ordered shops and cafes to close by 9 pm.</a> In Thailand, government workers were told to take the <a href="https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/iran-war-fuel-crisis-asia-work-from-home-closed-schools-price-caps/">stairs instead of the elevator</a>. And in South Korea, the president <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/world/article/327538/South-Koreas-Lee-calls-for-energy-saving-campaign-including-shorter-showers-car-curbs">urged citizens to take shorter showers</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These are wartime policies, even though none of these countries are actually fighting a war. All of them, however, are caught in the blast radius of one being fought thousands of miles away. That’s because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28, has detonated a crisis that reaches into kitchens, classrooms, hospitals, and fields across the Global South.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Twenty-one miles wide at its narrowest point, before the war, the Strait <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets">carried</a> 20 percent of global oil, 20 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a third of seaborne fertilizer, and nearly half of the world’s sulfur exports. Commodity shipments have <a href="https://www.nbcrightnow.com/national/strait-of-hormuz-shipping-blockade-update/article_26b94a3c-bdcb-55f4-9fa6-c9657bb7714d.html">fallen by 95 percent</a>. The Strait is, in effect, closed, and the consequences are cascading through the lives of an estimated <a href="https://fortune.com/2026/03/29/global-economy-impact-iran-war-gas-price/">3.2 billion people</a> in countries now subject to some form of fuel rationing, power cuts, or energy restrictions.</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Will the stock market decide the outcome of the Iran war? #shorts" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0b_AlzNJiGk?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The food crisis</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Start with food. India imports <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/03/23/iran-war-lpg-hormuz-india/">the majority of its cooking gas through the Strait</a>, and the disruption hit almost immediately. Black-market prices for a single liquified petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder — the kind that powers a family kitchen there — have <a href="https://learn.vcnow.in/india-lpg-crisis-2026/">nearly tripled</a>. Restaurants across the country have slashed their menus; a 70-year-old Mumbai institution trimmed its elaborate multicourse Ramadan offerings <a href="https://www.kgou.org/world/2026-03-19/war-fueled-cooking-gas-shortage-hits-households-restaurants-and-factories-in-india">to just four dishes</a>. A chain in the same city stopped selling dosa entirely, because the dish requires an open gas flame. A handwritten sign at a Bengaluru restaurant <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/viral/north-indians-without-chapatis-no-roti-notice-at-bengaluru-pg-goes-viral-amid-gas-cylinder-crisis-due-to-west-asia-conflict-article-153811397">went viral</a>: <em>“There will be no roti due to gas cylinder crisis (due to war between Iran and USA).” </em>Nearly <a href="https://menafn.com/1110861431/Price-Hike-Job-Loss-And-Limited-Food-Menu-How-The-LPG-Shortage-Is-Squeezing-Indian-Restaurants">10,000 restaurants</a> in the state of Tamil Nadu alone face closure.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The fertilizer crisis hasn’t yet had the same level of immediate effects, but the longer-term impact looks grim. The Gulf produces <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-threatens-world-fertilizer-supply-chain/3875786">roughly a third of the world’s exports of urea</a>, a key ingredient in fertilizer, and the closure hit at the single worst moment in the agricultural calendar — just as Northern Hemisphere farmers need to apply fertilizer for spring planting.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Bangladesh has <a href="https://pcma.org.pk/bangladesh-temporarily-closes-most-urea-fertilizer-plants-amid-gas-shortage/">shut down four of its five state-owned urea plants</a>. Nepal, which produces zero chemical fertilizer domestically, has seen <a href="https://english.clickmandu.com/2026/03/7386/">urea prices jump 40 percent</a> ahead of its critical paddy season. In Brazil, <a href="https://fortune.com/2026/03/21/iran-war-sugar-prices-truckers-strait-of-hormuz/">sugar mills are diverting their new harvest toward ethanol</a> — which is more profitable, with oil above $100 a barrel — which could tighten global sugar supplies for months.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The World Food Programme warns that 45 million more people globally<a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-projects-food-insecurity-could-reach-record-levels-result-middle-east-escalation"> could be pushed into acute food insecurity</a> — an increase of 15 percent on current hunger levels. As if that’s not enough, the closure of the strait has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/03/18/nx-s1-5750504/iran-war-hinders-the-flow-of-u-n-aid-through-the-gulf-to-communities-in-need">stranded vital United Nations food aid in warehouses in Dubai</a>, crippling the ability of relief agencies to get supplies where they’re needed most.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A scary climate</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then there’s the environmental fallout, which may be the single most consequential long-term effect of the crisis.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The disruption of relatively clean LNG supplies has triggered a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/03/24/g-s1-114940/asia-boosts-coal-use-as-iran-war-squeezes-global-lng-supplies">coal resurgence across Asia</a> and beyond. Japan is planning to <a href="https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/japan-to-temporarily-lift-coal-power-plant-curbs-over-hormuz-crisis">lift rules</a> that required its oldest, dirtiest coal plants to run at less than 50 percent capacity, which means more carbon dioxide and other pollution spewed into the air. South Korea <a href="https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/03/24/korea-enforces-public-vehicle-rationing-cuts-lng-power">removed</a> its own seasonal cap on coal power and delayed the retirement of three coal plants. Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia are all expanding coal operations. And in Europe, Germany is <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/germany-to-review-restarting-coal-plants-as-iran-conflict-hits-energy-costs-126032800528_1.html">reviewing </a>whether to restart mothballed coal plants.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Coal companies — whose product is the <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer">single-biggest contributor</a> to climate change — are reaping the benefit. Australia’s <a href="https://www.finermarketpoints.com/post/yancoal-yal-iran-war-coal-price-momentum">Yancoal is up 40 percent</a> since the war began, while Pennsylvania-based Core Natural Resources is up 30 percent. And once turned on, coal plants can be politically difficult to shut down again, which would risk <a href="https://heatmap.news/energy/iran-coal">a longer-term carbon lock-in</a>. And it’s not just about climate change. In India, the government has formally <a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/indias-poor-turn-to-wood-coal-as-iran-war-spikes-gas-prices">permitted restaurants and hotels to burn wood, dried crops, and cow dung</a> — undoing years of clean-fuel progress and <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air-pollution-and-health">putting more lives at risk</a> in the process in a single directive.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you squint, there could be an eventual silver lining to all of this. In Nepal, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/03/16/nx-s1-5732984/energy-iran-war-solar-pakistan-crisis-renewable-evs">over 70 percent </a>of new car sales are already electric. Electric rickshaws <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2026/03/27/iran-war-is-pushing-consumers-to-break-up-with-fossil-fuels/89347427007/">are selling out</a> in Pakistan. The Chinese electric car maker BYD <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/automobiles/electric-vehicles/byd-hails-windfall-as-iran-oil-crisis-supercharges-chinese-ev-outlook?utm_source=semafor">is now projecting</a> overseas sales to be 15 percent higher than they were expected before the war. One energy analyst called this “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-renewables-solar-wind-oil-gas-energy-strait-of-hormuz.html">Asia’s Ukraine moment</a>” — a shock that could accelerate the shift to renewables the way Russia’s invasion pushed Europe toward wind and solar. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Hastening the clean energy transition, however, won’t put food on the table for billions of people throughout the Global South, and more coal and other dirty fuels in the short term will endanger more lives around the globe. The world’s poor may not be fighting the Iran war, but they are surely suffering from it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect"><em><strong>Future Perfect</strong></em></a><em>&nbsp;newsletter.&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup"><em><strong>Sign up here!</strong></em></a></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The 45-year fight against HIV is one of humanity’s greatest victories. It’s also in danger.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/484425/hiv-aids-pepfar-epidemic-usaid-act-up" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=484425</id>
			<updated>2026-03-31T17:54:11-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-04-01T06:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health Care" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[On June 5, 1981, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a brief, clinical report in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report about five young men in Los Angeles who had developed a rare and deadly form of pneumonia.&#160; The write-up, barely a page long, ran in between a report on dengue infections among [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Illustraiton of progress against HIV" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/04/vox_HIV_final2.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p class="has-text-align-none">On June 5, 1981, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a brief, clinical report in its <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1470612/">Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report</a> about five young men in Los Angeles who had developed a rare and deadly form of pneumonia.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The write-up, barely a page long, <a href="https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/1261">ran in between</a> a report on dengue infections among US travelers and an assessment of measles cases. No one who read it could have known this was the opening chapter of the deadliest infectious disease epidemic since the 1918 flu — one that would kill an estimated <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet">44 million people</a> worldwide and reshape medicine, politics, and culture in ways we’re still reckoning with. It would eventually be called human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For the next 15 years, an HIV diagnosis was, functionally, a death sentence, as the immune system was hollowed out on a slow march to full-blown AIDS. The virus mutated so rapidly that every early attempt at treatment felt like trying to hit a moving target in the dark. And the dark was where many of the earliest victims were forced to live, stigmatized by society. It took until September 1985 for President Ronald Reagan to <a href="https://www.history.com/articles/aids-epidemic-ronald-reagan">even say the word “AIDS” publicly</a>, by which point <a href="https://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/spotlight/nn/feature/aids">some 6,000 Americans</a> had already died. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">By 1993, HIV had become the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00040227.htm">leading cause of death</a> for all Americans aged 25 to 44. Not just gay men. Not just intravenous drug users. Everyone in the prime of their lives. In 1995, at the epidemic&#8217;s American peak, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6021a2.htm?" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6021a2.htm?">50,628 people</a> died of AIDS in a single year. Globally, new infections <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet#:~:text=New%20HIV%20infections,000%20new%20infections%20by%202025." data-type="link" data-id="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet#:~:text=New%20HIV%20infections,000%20new%20infections%20by%202025.">peaked</a> the following year at around 3.4 million. In the hardest-hit cities of sub-Saharan Africa,  <a href="https://www.prb.org/resource/the-status-of-the-hiv-aids-epidemic-in-sub-saharan-africa/">one in five adults were HIV positive</a>. Entire generations of parents were being wiped out. By 2000, AIDS was the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-200309-clark_paper3.pdf#:~:text=These%20data%20have%20been%20superceded%20by%20work,to%20HIV%2Drelated%20causes%20(Dorrington%20et%20al.%2C%202001).">leading cause of death</a> on the African continent.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The story could have ended there: The virus had won while the world looked away. But it didn&#8217;t. What happened instead, through a combination of activist fury, scientific ingenuity, and an act of bipartisan political will that still seems improbable in hindsight, is one of the great reversals in the history of medicine. It’s a narrative that provides hope not just that we might one day <a href="https://ari.ucsf.edu/clinical-care/getting-zero">get to zero</a> and eradicate HIV, but that the world can overcome what may seem like the most hopeless challenges.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Miracle drugs — and a community that wouldn’t die</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For the first decade of the epidemic, the US government&#8217;s response was defined by indifference, until activists decided to make that impossible. The group Act Up <a href="https://actupny.com/actions/">turned unimaginable grief into political force</a>, storming the Food and Drug Administration, shutting down Wall Street, and transforming funerals into protests. They were loud and furious and provocative — and effective: Act Up and allied organizations <a href="https://www.history.com/articles/act-up-aids-patient-rights">pressured the FDA</a> into creating accelerated drug approval pathways and shamed pharmaceutical companies into expanding access to experimental HIV treatments.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The clinical turning point came at the 1996 <a href="https://www.acs.org/education/whatischemistry/landmarks/highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy-hiv.html">International AIDS Conference in Vancouver</a>. Researchers including Dr. David Ho presented data on combination antiretroviral therapy — what would become known as HAART. Scientists combined multiple drugs into a cocktail that attacked HIV at different stages of its life cycle — basically surrounding the virus so it had nowhere to evolve to.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The results were staggering: 60 percent to 80 percent declines in rates of AIDS, death, and hospitalization. Patients who had been days from death recovered so dramatically that doctors called it the “<a href="https://www.pih.org/article/lessons-from-hiv-what-stood-in-the-way-of-access-to-treatment#:~:text=One%20by%20one%2C%20PIH's%20AIDS,behalf%20of%20her%20fellow%20patients.">Lazarus effect</a>.” One physician’s practice went from <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1785229/">37 patient deaths in 1995</a> to zero in 1998. Nationally, AIDS deaths in the United States <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/98news/aidsmort.htm">fell 63 percent in three years</a>. HIV dropped from the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9805455/">No. 1 killer of young Americans</a> to No. 5 by 1997 — an unprecedented decline for any leading cause of death in modern history.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But the Lazarus effect had a brutal asterisk. <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05391">Early antiretroviral therapy cost</a> $10,000 to $15,000 per patient per year. For most Americans with HIV, that was doable with a mix of insurance and government funding. For the tens of millions infected in impoverished sub-Saharan Africa — where the epidemic was orders of magnitude worse than in the West — those lifesaving drugs were all but unobtainable. In January 2003, nearly a decade after antiretrovirals had become widespread in the US, only about <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3192657/">50,000 people in all of sub-Saharan Africa</a> were on the drugs. Thirty million were infected. Roughly <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05391">12 million Africans died of AIDS</a> between 1997 and 2006 while high costs and supply bottlenecks kept the treatment that would have saved their lives out of reach.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s not hard to imagine an alternate history where this inequality of death persisted. After all, we implicitly accept this ingrained inequality in so many other areas, from extreme poverty to childhood mortality.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But that’s not what happened. The same activist energy that had forced the FDA&#8217;s hand in the 1990s turned its attention to the <a href="https://dp.la/primary-source-sets/act-up-and-the-aids-crisis">global treatment gap</a>, joined by an unlikely alliance of evangelical Christians <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4184203-pepfar-is-a-pro-life-miracle-evangelicals-must-continue-to-support-it/">motivated</a> by faith, public health officials who saw a security threat, and a president <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/bush-demanded-billions-aids-africa-2003-state-union-paid-rcna69555">who cited</a> the parable of the Good Samaritan.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During his 2003 State of the Union address, <a href="https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/an-oral-history-of-pepfar-how-a-dream-big-partnership-is-saving-the-lives-of-millions">President George W. Bush pledged $15 billion</a> over five years to fight AIDS abroad through what he called the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR. The House passed the legislation that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-approves-global-aids-bill/#:~:text=April%201%2C%202003%20/%2011:,billion%20on%20international%20AIDS%20efforts.">created PEPFAR</a> 375-41, a sign of just how broad the coalition behind it was.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In April 2004, a 34-year-old man in Uganda named <a href="https://ug.usembassy.gov/celebrating-20-years-of-pepfar-science-summit-highlights-impact-of-u-s-investments-toward-ending-hiv-in-uganda/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20has%20supported,success%20of%20this%20lifesaving%20program.">John Robert Engole became the first</a> person in the world to receive PEPFAR-supported antiretroviral therapy. By the end of 2005, <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3225226/">some 400,000 people</a> were on treatment through the program. By 2008, it was 2 million around the world — a 40-fold increase from the <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/bushrecord/factsheets/globalhealth.html">50,000 Africans on ART</a> when Bush made his speech. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">PEPFAR has since invested over $120 billion and, by its own estimates, <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/pepfars-profound-legacy-20-years">saved 26 million lives</a>. The cost of treating one patient in a low-income country fell from roughly $1,200 a year in 2003 to <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2412286">$58 by 2023</a>. As my former colleague Dylan Matthews <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/7/8/8894019/george-w-bush-pepfar">once wrote</a>, PEPFAR is “one of the best government programs in American history.”</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/hivaids-deaths-and-averted-due-to-art.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="chart showing HIV/Aids deaths averted by antiretrovial therapy" title="chart showing HIV/Aids deaths averted by antiretrovial therapy" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Winning the war</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The downstream effects of PEPFAR and other advances in HIV treatment and prevention are extraordinary.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/UNAIDS_FactSheet_en.pdf">Annual global AIDS deaths have fallen</a> from a peak of 2.1 million in 2004 to 630,000 in 2024 — a 70 percent reduction. Some 30.7 million people in low- and middle-income countries are now <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet">on antiretroviral therapy</a> worldwide, <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3445041/">up from fewer</a> than 400,000 just two decades ago. That’s nearly an 80-fold increase.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What this all means is that someone diagnosed with HIV today who gets on treatment can expect a near-normal lifespan, which is an outcome that would have been literally unimaginable to anyone living through the 1980s and early 1990s.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On top of far better treatment, the toolkit for preventing people from getting HIV in the first place has become far more effective, which has helped lead new infections to drop more than 60 percent from 3.4 million in 1996 to 1.3 million. <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1011205">PrEP</a> — a daily pill that reduces the risk of contracting HIV by up to 99 percent — has been available since 2012, and <a href="https://www.who.int/groups/global-prep-network/global-state-of-prep#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20more%20than%203.5,people%20using%20PrEP%20by%202025.">more than 3.5 million people</a> around the world have taken it at least once. Last year the FDA approved lenacapavir, a twice-yearly injection that Science magazine named its <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/breakthrough-2024">2024 breakthrough of the year</a>. In the PURPOSE 1 trial of the drug, among more than 2,100 women in South Africa and Uganda, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/464468/lenacapavir-hiv-drug-pepfar-foreign-aid-gilead-drug">there were zero HIV infections</a>. Not a low number. Zero.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">HIV treatment, essentially, has become so effective that it now acts as prevention as well. HIV experts call it <a href="https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/treatment-prevention">Undetectable equals Untransmittable, or U=U</a>. Studies encompassing <a href="https://www.aidsmap.com/news/jul-2018/zero-transmissions-mean-zero-risk-partner-2-study-results-announced">over 100,000 acts of condomless sex</a> where one partner is HIV positive and another is not have found zero linked transmissions. That means someone living with HIV who is virally suppressed cannot pass the virus on sexually, which is a step toward both normalizing a disease that was once so feared and further curtailing the epidemic. And these tools can work at scale: The SEARCH trial <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-supported-trial-reduces-hiv-incidence-70-rural-populations">showed</a> that community health workers in rural Kenya and Uganda, armed with smartphone apps and the ability to immediately provide antiretroviral treatment to anyone testing positive, cut new infections by 70 percent.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The backlash that could kill</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And yet, more than 630,000 people <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet">still die of AIDS</a> every year — roughly one every minute. Some 9.2 million people who need treatment still aren’t getting it. Children are the worst off: only 55 percent of those under 14 with HIV are on therapy, compared to 78 percent of adults. And the epidemic’s burden falls hardest on the most marginalized: sex workers, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, and transgender people now account for over 55 percent of <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/UNAIDS-global-AIDS-update-2025">all new infections globally</a> — up from 44 percent in 2010.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Two-thirds of all people living with HIV <a href="https://www.who.int/teams/global-hiv-hepatitis-and-stis-programmes/hiv/strategic-information/hiv-data-and-statistics">are in sub-Saharan Africa</a>, where external funding finances around 80 percent of prevention programs. That has left them vulnerable as the global HIV response faces its gravest funding threat in decades.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/the-trump-administrations-foreign-aid-review-status-of-pepfar/">PEPFAR’s statutory authorization lapsed</a> in March 2025 without congressional reauthorization. A January 2025 stop-work order froze programs worldwide. The effective <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/421105/usaid-pepfar-cuts-death-toll">dismantling of USAID</a> — with 90 percent of contracts canceled — has gutted the program’s infrastructure. <a href="https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025-global-aids-update-JC3153_en.pdf">UNAIDS modeling</a> suggests that if these disruptions become permanent, the result could be 6 million additional infections and 4 million additional deaths by 2029. <a href="https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.18772/26180197.2025.v7n2a8">South Africa alone has already laid off</a> some 8,000 health care workers because of funding cuts.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And the threat isn&#8217;t only abroad: More than 20 US states are now considering <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/adap-ryan-white-hiv-aids-cuts-florida-desantis.html">cuts to the AIDS Drug Assistance Program</a>, the safety net that covers a quarter of all Americans living with HIV — including Florida, where 16,000 people briefly lost coverage before an emergency fix that lasts only through the summer. A recent Johns Hopkins study <a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/newsroom/news-releases/2025/09/ending-federally-funded-ryan-white-hivaids-program-would-increase-new-hiv-infections-49-nationwide-by-2030-computer-model-predicts">estimated</a> that eliminating the program&#8217;s parent legislation could increase new infections in major US cities by nearly 50 percent by 2030</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For the first time in the 45-year history of this epidemic, we have genuinely effective tools to end it: drugs that treat, pills and injections that prevent, even <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/g-s1-106007/hiv-vaccine-trial-south-africa">hopes for a potential vaccine</a>. The gap between where we are and where we need to be is no longer a question of science. It is a question of money and political will — the same forces that, two decades ago, helped produce the most effective global health program in American history.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The story of HIV is a story of what humanity can accomplish when it decides something matters enough. We’ve made that decision before. The question is whether we’ll make it again.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/good-news-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What baseball’s “robot umpires” tell us about the future of work]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/483730/major-league-baseball-umpires-ai-robot-work" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=483730</id>
			<updated>2026-03-25T10:39:46-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-03-25T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Sports" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[For a sport that’s more than 150 years old, the opening of the 2026 Major League Baseball season is set to feature an unusual number of firsts. The official Opening Day on March 26 is the earliest in baseball history. The first official game of the season tonight between the Giants and the Yankees — [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A Jumbotron screen shows a graphic of a baseball and ABS system. " data-caption="A scoreboard shows a call being confirmed by ABS during a spring training game on February 25, 2026, in Scottsdale, Arizona. | Chris Coduto/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Chris Coduto/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/GettyImages-2263895192.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A scoreboard shows a call being confirmed by ABS during a spring training game on February 25, 2026, in Scottsdale, Arizona. | Chris Coduto/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">For a sport that’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/kidspost/pro-baseball-marks-150-years-but-it-wasnt-exactly-the-same-game-back-then/2019/08/07/24d64044-b3cd-11e9-8949-5f36ff92706e_story.html">more than 150 years old</a>, the opening of the 2026 Major League Baseball season is set to feature an unusual number of firsts. The official Opening Day on March 26 is the <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2026-schedule-released">earliest in baseball history</a>. The first official game of the season tonight between the Giants and the Yankees — which is Opening <em>Night</em>, not Opening <em>Day</em>, totally different — will be the <a href="https://www.netflix.com/tudum/features/mlb-opening-night-live-on-netflix">first-ever game streamed on Netflix</a>. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And chances are that some time during that game, a player will tap his helmet or hat after a pitch is thrown, challenging the umpire’s call and triggering baseball’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026">first-ever Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system review</a>. The robot umpires are here.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The system is remarkably straightforward. Each team gets two challenges per game, retaining them if successful, losing them if wrong. Only the pitcher, catcher, or batter can challenge, only over balls and strikes calls, and <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47914496/mlb-unveils-abs-challenge-system-guidelines-2026-season">only within two seconds of the pitch</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Once a challenge is made, a network of <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/ball-strike-challenge-system-2026">12 high-speed cameras</a> installed around the stadium tracks the pitch’s exact location, and then software creates a 3D model of the pitch’s trajectory — on the Jumbotron for everyone to see — against the batter’s individualized strike zone. The verdict is made instantly. The umpire doesn’t go to a monitor and reconsider for minutes, like in NFL or NBA replay. He is merely the conduit to announce what the machine has decided.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This change should in theory make everyone better off. Teams have an appeal in the event of a potential blown call at a crucial moment (such as the <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48220531/dominican-republic-frustrated-game-ending-blown-ball-strike-call-semifinal-loss-team-usa-world-baseball-classic">brutal game-ending strike call</a> for the Dominican Republic in this month’s World Baseball Classic). Challenges are limited and rapidly decided, so the game doesn’t slow down. The automated system <a href="https://technology.mlblogs.com/introducing-statcast-2020-hawk-eye-and-google-cloud-a5f5c20321b8">is accurate</a> to within 0.25 inches — roughly the width of a pencil — and quick enough to catch <a href="https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2025/05/08/aroldis-chapman-throws-103-mph-fastest-mlb-pitch-this-season-red-sox/83508021007/">an Aroldis Chapman 103-mph fastball</a>. Human umpires are still largely in charge of the game.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All in all, the ABS system appears to be an ideal compromise — preserving human judgement while allowing machines to correct the worst mistakes. While the system isn’t AI-powered, it seems like an example of how humans and AI could fruitfully work together in the future, with humans firmly in the loop but aided by the machines.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Except there’s a problem with splitting the difference between human and machine. Once you’ve conceded that the machine is the final authority on whether a call is right — which is exactly what baseball has done here — you’ve quietly eliminated the case for having the human there at all. What might seem like a stable equilibrium isn’t stable at all.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Calling balls and strikes</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">You can see this breakdown already underway in the minor leagues, which <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/abs-challenge-system-is-coming-to-mlb-in-2026-heres-what-you-need-to-know-203356409.html">has been experimenting</a> with the ABS system for years. Baseball reporter Jayson Stark <a href="https://www.aarp.org/personal-technology/how-mlb-robot-umpires-work/">has written</a> about umpires in the AAA minors who, having grown tired of being overturned for all to see by the machine, began to change the way they handled the game, “calling balls and strikes the way they think the robot would call them.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Because the league has given the machine final say, the human behind the mask doesn’t stay independent — he starts mimicking the machine. The umpire — once the lord of the diamond, whose word was law — becomes in effect the rough draft for the AI. Human knowledge and expertise becomes degraded.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To which a baseball fan might respond, perhaps with more colorful language, “they’re all bums anyway.” Which wouldn’t be quite fair to our carbon-based umpires, not that fairness to umps has ever been a concern for baseball fans. MLB <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/ball-strike-challenge-system-2026">estimates</a> that umpires call 94 percent of pitches correctly, which on one hand is good — I’m not sure I’m 94 percent accurate on anything — but on the other hand, means they’re still making mistakes on around 17 or 18 pitches a game on average.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And even though the data suggests umpires have actually been getting better, we’re now able to see replays and precise pitch-tracking data that make it crystal clear just when a call has been blown. A guy named Ethan Singer even created an <a href="https://umpscorecards.com/">independent project called Umpire Scorecards</a>, which uses publicly available <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs">Statcast/pitch tracking data</a> to score every umpire, every game. The new ABS system just ratifies what previous technology made obvious years ago.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So the technological assault on the umpire’s authority has been underway for some time, and while even the ABS system <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/article/mlb-abs-challenge-system-explained-160028322.html">has its margin of error</a>, the end result of introducing machines will be a more accurately called game. But real human skills will be lost along the way. The best catchers are experts at <a href="https://diamondcentric.net/news-rumors/major-league-baseball/hawk-eye-at-the-plate-what-fans-need-to-know-about-the-automated-ball-strike-challenge-system-r6251/">framing pitches</a> to make them <em>look</em> like strikes, even if they aren’t. Good batters learn an umpire’s individual strike zone and adjust game to game. (The Red Sox great Ted Williams <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/strike_zone_rules_history.shtml">used to say</a> there were three strike zones: his own, the pitcher’s, and the umpire’s.) All of these skills were built on human imperfection, and all of them will become less valuable even as machines make the game “fairer.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The one-way street of automation</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To get a glimpse of baseball’s possible future, just look at tennis.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2006, pro tennis <a href="https://www.tennismajors.com/atp/march-6-2006-the-birth-of-of-hawk-eye-and-the-challenge-system-325509.html">introduced the Hawk-Eye challenges</a>, which allowed players to appeal a limited number of line calls to an automated camera system. The players were, initially, not fans. (As Marat Safin <a href="https://www.tennismajors.com/atp/march-6-2006-the-birth-of-of-hawk-eye-and-the-challenge-system-325509.html">put it</a>: “Who was the genius who came up with this stupid idea?”) </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But the logic, especially as the sport got faster and faster, was undeniable. By 2020, the US Open had <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/10/1121801484/us-open-tennis-human-line-judges-replaced">eliminated human line judging altogether</a>, and <a href="https://frontofficesports.com/wimbledon-electronic-line-calling/">Wimbledon followed suit in 2025</a>. Human umpires are still employed, but mostly for the purposes of match management; i.e., shushing the crowd. The challenge system turned out to be just a stop on the path to near full-scale automation. And now baseball is stepping onto the same road.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The ABS system is what you get when an institution knows that the machine is better at the job but isn’t ready to say so. That’s exactly the position that a lot of organizations find themselves in right now, as AI grows ever more capable. The result, for the moment, tends to be a hybrid approach that leaves too many workers feeling stressed and disempowered, while failing to capture the benefits of more complete automation.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But over time, automation tends to prove to be a one-way street. The question isn’t whether machines will eventually call balls and strikes. It’s how much longer the halfway point can hold — for those umpires we love to hate, and for the rest of us.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect"><em><strong>Future Perfect</strong></em></a><em>&nbsp;newsletter.&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup"><em><strong>Sign up here!</strong></em></a></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[We’re discovering new species faster than ever — and it might be our best chance to save them]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/480860/species-discovery-genetic-sequencing-extinction-endangered-wildlife" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=480860</id>
			<updated>2026-03-23T06:17:04-04:00</updated>
			<published>2026-03-23T06:17:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Down to Earth" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Good News" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Highlight" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[This story was originally published in The Highlight, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get access to member-exclusive stories every month, become a Vox Member today. When the Swedish botanist Carl Linnaeus published Systema Naturae in 1735, he set out to classify every living thing on Earth — inventing the naming system we still use today and personally describing [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A recently species of orangutan in a tree" data-caption="A tapanuli orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) is seen at Planckendael Zoo, in Mechelen, Belgium, on April 18, 2025. The species was first described in 2017. | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/GettyImages-2210645296.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A tapanuli orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) is seen at Planckendael Zoo, in Mechelen, Belgium, on April 18, 2025. The species was first described in 2017. | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>This story was originally published in </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/480726/welcome-to-the-march-issue-of-the-highlight"><em>The Highlight</em></a><em>, Vox’s member-exclusive magazine. To get access to member-exclusive stories every month, </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/support-membership?itm_campaign=article-header-Q42024&amp;itm_medium=site&amp;itm_source=in-article"><em>become a Vox Member today</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When the Swedish botanist Carl Linnaeus published <em><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systema_Naturae">Systema Naturae</a></em> in 1735, he set out to classify every living thing on Earth — inventing the naming system we still use today and personally <a href="https://study.com/academy/lesson/video/carolus-linnaeus-classification-taxonomy-contributions-to-biology.html">describing more than 10,000 species</a> of plants and animals.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Nearly three centuries later, with satellites mapping every continent and AI models that can <a href="https://birdnet.cornell.edu/">identify a bird by its song</a>, you might assume we’d pretty much finished the job Linnaeus started. We’ve been to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challenger_Deep">the bottom of the ocean</a>. We’ve <a href="https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project">sequenced the human genome</a>. Surely we’ve cataloged our roommates on this planet.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We have not. Not even close. <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-species-are-there">Scientists estimate</a> we’ve identified somewhere around one-tenth of all species on Earth — meaning for every species with a name, roughly nine more are waiting in an unsampled river or an unexplored cave.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Or even a museum drawer where they’ve been gathering dust for decades. Hundreds of thousands of unnamed species are already <a href="https://www.oklahoman.com/story/lifestyle/2018/02/20/specimens-remain-lost-in-time-in-forgotten-museum-collections/60542114007/?">sitting in museum</a> and herbarium collections right now. A quarter of <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3009773/">new species descriptions involve</a> specimens more than 50 years old. As the University of Arizona ecologist John Wiens <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/12/13/nx-s1-5629237-e1/a-new-study-reveals-an-unprecedented-discovery-of-new-species">put it</a>: “It’s a poorly known planet that we live on.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And now many of that planet’s residents are in trouble. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) estimates that around <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/global-assessment">1 million animal and plant species are threatened with extinction</a>, and that extinction rates are at least tens to hundreds of times higher than the background norm. The current extinction rate is somewhere between 100 and 1,000 times the “natural” rate, and the species vanishing fastest are disproportionately the ones we haven’t catalogued yet: small invertebrates, tropical fungi, deep-sea organisms in habitats we’ve barely surveyed. The race to describe what’s out there has real stakes. You can’t protect what you haven’t found.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So here’s the good news: When it comes to the species on Earth, we’re not actually falling behind. We’re speeding up.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A study published in December in <em><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz3071">Science Advances</a></em> by Wiens and colleagues analyzed 1.9 million species from the <a href="https://www.catalogueoflife.org/2025/07/09/annual-release">Catalogue of Life</a> and found that between 2015 and 2020, scientists described more than 16,000 new species per year — the highest rate in the 270-year history of modern taxonomy. Wiens argues that 15 percent of every species known to science has been discovered in just the past two decades.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This was supposed to be going the other direction. Earlier research had suggested that the rate of species description peaked around 1900, back when naturalists in pith helmets were tramping through the tropics and shipping specimens back to European museums in wooden crates. The assumption was that the easy discoveries had been made, and we were in the long tail of diminishing returns.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Wiens’s data says otherwise. “Some scientists have suggested that the pace of new species descriptions has slowed down and that this indicates we are running out of new species to discover,” <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/12/251224032345.htm">he told ScienceDaily</a>. “But our results show the opposite.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>How we got faster</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The biggest driver is the DNA revolution. <a href="https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data">Genome sequencing costs</a> have plummeted from $95 million per human genome in 2001 to hundreds of dollars by the early 2020s — dropping faster than <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/4/15/11561480/moores-law-hits-50-but-it-may-not-see-60">Moore’s Law</a> for long stretches of time. That cost drop has made DNA barcoding cheap enough for widespread use, allowing researchers to distinguish species that look identical to the naked eye but are genetically distinct.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A technique called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_DNA">environmental DNA</a> (eDNA) now lets scientists detect species from trace genetic material — a bit of shed skin in a river, cellular fragments in a soil sample. A single water sample can reveal dozens of species, including rare ones that traditional surveys would miss entirely. In 2025, researchers analyzing archived aerosol filters <a href="https://www.nature.com/ncomms/">reconstructed biodiversity data</a> for more than 2,700 genera from airborne eDNA collected over 34 years.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then there’s the citizen science explosion. <a href="https://www.inaturalist.org/blog/97048-200-000-000-observations-on-inaturalist">iNaturalist</a>, founded in 2008, has passed 200 million verifiable observations — doubling from 100 million in about two years. Over 4 million people around the world are now photographing and uploading every spider, mushroom, and wildflower they encounter, and AI-assisted identification helps sort the results.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2023, two Australian citizen scientists <a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-12-citizen-scientists-mantis-species.html">helped discover Inimia nat</a>, an entirely new genus of mantis — the first of its subfamily named since before the moon landing. (The “I. nat” is a nod to the platform.) In Brisbane, a group of young students <a href="https://phys.org/news/2024-10-citizen-scientists-insect-discovery.html">discovered a fly species</a> previously undetected in Australia and won a <a href="https://australian.museum/get-involved/eureka-prizes/">Eureka Prize</a> for it.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And finally, we started looking where we’d never looked. The <a href="https://oceancensus.org/discovery-spotlight/">Ocean Census</a>, a 10-year initiative launched in 2023, has identified 866 likely new marine species across 10 expeditions. A single month-long <a href="https://schmidtocean.org/">Schmidt Ocean Institute</a> expedition off the coast of Chile may have turned up more than 100 new species: corals, glass sponges, squat lobsters. (Some estimates find only about 10 percent of marine species have been described, which makes the ocean less a frontier than an entire undiscovered country.)&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In Laos, a zipline tour guide spotted what turned out to be a <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article280641470.html">new dragon lizard genus</a>. In Japan, an undergraduate named <a href="https://www.tohoku.ac.jp/en/press/researchers_in_japan_discover_new_jellyfish_species_deserving_of_a_samurai_warrior_name.html#:~:text=Gamo%20Beach%20in%20Sendai%20Bay,crescent%20moon%20adorning%20his%20helmet.">Yoshiki Ochiai found</a> a new man-o’-war species on Gamo Beach — a popular surf spot in Sendai — and brought the creature to the lab in a plastic bag.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And sometimes, we can even find species we’d thought had already gone extinct <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44185-025-00086-6">Attenborough’s long-beaked echidna</a>, one of only five living egg-laying mammals, was rediscovered in 2023 after not being seen since 1961 — captured on the last day of an Oxford expedition into the Cyclops Mountains of Indonesia.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The race against disappearance</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But discovery is not protection — and the gap between naming a species and saving it is widening.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A study from Wiens’s own lab found that the proportion of threatened species among newly described ones has risen from 11.9 percent (for species described in the 18th century) to 30 percent today, and is projected to reach 47 percent by 2050. The pattern has become grimly routine: a species gets a name and a Red List designation almost simultaneously.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/120588639/120588662">Tapanuli orangutan</a>, described in 2017, was listed critically endangered immediately with fewer than 800 individuals. Every new bird species described in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest between 1980 and 2010 was already threatened. According to <a href="https://www.kew.org/about-us/press-media/sotwpf-2023">Kew Gardens</a>, three in four undescribed plant species are estimated to be threatened with extinction before anyone even names them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s also a whole category that scientists call “dark extinction”: species that vanish before anyone knows they existed. One study estimated that dark extinctions could <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsbl/article/17/3/20210007/62915/Dark-extinction-the-problem-of-unknown-historical">substantially increase known bird extinction numbers</a>. The IPBES estimates more than 500,000 species have too little habitat left for long-term survival, making them effectively dead species walking (or crawling, or flying). Even as scientists describe new species at record rates, the tropical habitats where most undiscovered species live are being <a href="https://gfr.wri.org/latest-analysis-deforestation-trends">destroyed fastest</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So the race is real. But what the Wiens study shows is that it <em>is</em> still a race — and for the first time in the history of biology, we have the tools to run it faster. The golden age of species discovery isn’t a nostalgic label for the era of Darwin and Wallace. It’s happening now, in sequencing labs and on surf beaches and through the cameras of millions of ordinary people. Linnaeus described 10,000 species in a lifetime of work. We’re now finding that many every seven months. The question is whether we can keep accelerating before the things we haven’t yet found disappear for good.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/good-news-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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