It’s the final stretch. The primaries are winding down with only a few states left to vote, and while Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have all but locked up the nominations, Oregon and Kentucky are holding their primaries on Tuesday.
Primary elections 2016: what to expect in Kentucky and Oregon and poll closing times
Democrats will be voting in both Kentucky and Oregon, while Republicans, who already held their Kentucky primary in March, will only be voting in Oregon. Polls close at 7 pm Eastern in Kentucky. In Oregon, ballots are cast entirely by mail and must be returned by 8 pm Pacific.
Both states are holding closed contests, meaning only registered Democrats and Republican voters can cast a ballot. The Democrats have 116 delegates at stake Tuesday — 55 in Kentucky and 61 in Oregon — all of which will be allocated proportionally. The Republicans have 28 delegates at stake in Oregon.
Sanders might win, but Clinton is expected to come out on top
While closed primaries typically favor Clinton due to the large contingent of Sanders’s supporters who are registered as independents, Kentucky and Oregon might be two more wins for the Vermont senator, who says he will continue campaigning until the last ballot is cast.
Paired with a smaller minority vote, Kentucky’s eastern coal country will likely prove to be an asset for Sanders, who smashed Clinton in West Virginia last week, a neighboring state with similar demographics.
While it is unlikely Sanders will make much of a dent in Clinton’s 300-strong delegate lead, the former secretary of state has launched a robust campaign in Kentucky, where she hopes to break a losing streak.
Polls show Clinton with a slight lead ahead of Sanders, but after losses in Indiana and West Virginia, it is increasingly clear that Clinton wants a win for the sake of winning this late in the game.
Oregon too has long been considered Sanders territory, with a strong progressive culture and a heavily white population.
But while continuing his winning streak might be good for morale, the Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally, so Sanders is unlikely to do much damage on Tuesday.
Even with a 15-point win in West Virginia, Sanders only walked away with seven more delegates than Clinton.
The wins have given Sanders supporters strength to carry on and look past the numbers — and have prompted Sanders to say he will carry on until the convention. But in reality the race is almost over for Sanders, and unless he wins every state from now on with 65 percent of the vote or more, Clinton will come out on top.
Republicans don’t have much of a choice
From one of the most competitive candidate pools in recent history, Republicans have whittled down their candidate list to just one: Donald Trump.
After both Ted Cruz and John Kasich dropped out of the race following the Indiana primary, Oregon will be Trump’s third contest as the presumptive Republican nominee. While he won’t be alone on the ballot — Cruz and Kasich’s names will still be listed — Trump is expected to win in Oregon by a large margin.
Trump still needs 103 delegates to reach the 1,237 threshold to win the Republican convention outright. He is likely going to leave Oregon with the majority of the 28 delegates at stake, meaning he will not officially reach that count until June.
Correction: This post originally said polls close at 6 pm Eastern.
See More:
