Could a $9 toll change notorious traffic? New York became the first American city to find out.
Is NYC’s controversial $9 toll working? The data is in.
New York City’s congestion pricing experiment, explained in one chart.
Pratik Pawar is a fellow for Future Perfect. He reports on global health, science, and biomedicine, focusing on how policies and systems shape progress.
A year ago, it began charging drivers for entering Manhattan’s busiest central neighborhoods during peak hours. Critics called it a cash grab, and President Donald Trump even vowed to kill it.
But a year in, congestion pricing has largely proved to be a success, according to new data released by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority — the agency that runs New York’s massive network of subways, buses, and commuter rails.
Since tolling began, 21 million fewer vehicles have entered the toll zone, an 11 percent drop from what was projected without it. And average vehicle speeds improved by 23 percent. That’s the difference between a one-hour crawl and a 45-minute commute.
But the real gains came at the entry points. At the Holland Tunnel, for example, morning rush hour speeds jumped from 10.8 to 16.2 miles per hour — a 51 percent improvement. A separate analysis that used anonymized Google Maps data found these improvements spilled over to regional roads, meaning even drivers outside the zone got faster commutes.
Public transit riders benefited, too. After years of steady decline, average bus speeds in the zone ticked up 2.3 percent, reversing the trend seen in 2023 and 2024. Subway and bus ridership is up too, carrying more than 400,000 riders every day compared to 2024.
It’s easy to dismiss traffic as just a nuisance, but sitting in it is linked to higher stress, lost productivity, and worse air quality for everyone. Getting people out of cars and onto transit helps on all three fronts.
Streets got safer. Crashes involving trucks in the zone dropped by 21 percent compared to the previous year.
The MTA made money. Net revenue exceeded the MTA’s initial projections. That cash is earmarked for transit upgrades, including modern subway signals, 56 new elevators for accessibility, and the Second Avenue Subway extension.
The one place the jury is still out is on air quality. It’s worth watching because air pollution is a quiet killer. In New York City alone, fine particulate matter contributes to roughly 2,000 deaths and over 5,000 hospitalizations each year — and traffic is a major source of those pollutants.
A recent study from Cornell found a 22 percent decline in one kind of particulate matter after congestion pricing went into effect, while another analysis found little effect. The MTA’s own analysis showed no significant change in pollution levels. If London and Stockholm are any guide, it’ll take a few years of data before congestion pricing’s effects on air quality becomes clear.
There’s also the question of drivers who, looking to dodge the toll, might reroute through Queens or other neighborhoods outside the zone. The MTA has anticipated that and earmarked $100 million to offset potential air quality impacts in those neighborhoods: funding school air filters near highways and swapping out diesel equipment for electric.
The vocal opposition that greeted the program’s launch has largely died down, similar to what happened elsewhere. When Stockholm launched its congestion pricing in 2006, two-thirds of residents opposed it. After a six-month pilot, they held a referendum. More than half voted to keep it.
New York seems to be on the same arc. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who delayed the program in 2024, now touts it as an “unprecedented success.” And other cities are paying attention. Officials in Los Angeles have already reached out to New York for advice on their own potential pilot project, according to Gothamist.
Turns out, if you charge people to drive, fewer people drive. Who knew.
